Stat of the Day, 8th September 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

6.00 Musselburgh : Zeshov @ 11/4 BOG WON at 6/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led approaching 2f out, ridden and ran on)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.55 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG  

In the 11-runner, Class 2 Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £62250 to the winner…

Why?

Going to keep this one relatively simple with this in-form 3 yr old who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 runs this year, including wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, ensuring stamina shouldn’t be an issue today.

He has also won at this grade (LTO 14 days ago) and he has 2 wins and 2 places from the four occasions that William Buick has been in the saddle.

His trainer Charlie Appleby is bang amongst the winners again with a 4 from 8 record over the last fortnight, from which Mr Buick is 4 from 7, whilst over the last three seasons, the Appleby string are 17 from 100 (17% SR) for 37.6pts (+37.6% ROI) profit here at Ascot, from which…

  • William Buick is 12/62 (19.4%) for 36.7pts (+59.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/38 (13.2%) for 40.8pts (+107.3%)
  • over 1m4f course and distance : 4/19 (21.1%) for 26.9pts (+141.8%)

And finally, I think it’s worth noting that Charlie Appleby’s LTO winners running at Class 1/2 over 8.5 to 13.5 furlongs are 24 from 94 (25.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+52.3% ROI), including…

  • 3 yr olds at 12/45 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+116.2%)
  • under William Buick : 12/43 (27.9%) for 38.1pts (+88.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 12/38 (31.6%) for 19.4pts (+51.1%)
  • in 3 yo only races : 7/32 (21.9%) for 29.1pts (+90.9%)
  • after a break of less than 3 weeks : 10/25 (40%) for 27.7pts (+110.8%)
  • and here at Ascot : 3/12 (25%) for 12.4pts (+103.4%)

pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, BetStars, BetVictor & Paddy Power as of 7.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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