Stat of the Day, 10th September 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

3.55 Ascot : Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leading pair on inside, went 2nd on inner over 2f out, led 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG  

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In an 8-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground, worth £4640 to the winner… 


On what looks a poor day of racing, this one caught my eye from a variety of different statistical angles, but I’ll just share a few ideas with you (for the sake of brevity and your boredom!)

A switch to Gavin Patrick Cromwell’s yard at the end of February seems to have re-ignited a spark in this 9 yr old mare, as she has 4 wins and 2 places from 9 runs since, including winning two of her three efforts over fences, the most recent being a win in another Class 4 Novice handicap Chase at Sedgefield 11 days ago under today’s jockey Brian Hughes.

Mr Cromwell’s runners are 3 from 15 (20% SR) over the last 7 days, whilst since the start of 2015, they are 4 from 14 (28.6% SR) for 15.92pts (+113.7% ROI) profit here at Perth. Admittedly a small sample size, but interestingly regarding today’s pick/race…

  • handicappers are 3/9 (33.3%) for 13.27pts (+147.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.27pts (+218.1%)
  • at 3m/3m½f : 3/6 (50%) for 17.27pts (+345.3%)
  • chasers are 2/5 (40%) for 5.34pts (+106.8%)
  • and those racing after a short break of 11-20 days are 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.34pts (+244.7%)

Not numbers to hang your hat on, but surely more than coincidental?

Gavin does seem to fare better with his chasers than the rest of his string and again since the start of 2015, his record over fences stands at 20 winners from 116 (17.2% SR) for 39.7pts (+34.2% ROI) profit if backed blindly, with handicappers winning 20 of 89 (22.5%) for 66.7pts (74.9%). Not that we’d necessarily advocate blindly following anyone, but the following filters applied tot hose 89 Handicap chasers look both useful and profitable…

  • those who raced within the previous 45 days are 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.7pts (+82.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m5½f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 58.8pts (+140.1%)
  • in the UK : 8/23 (34.8%) for 28.3pts (+123.1%)
  • 9 yr olds are 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.5pts (+122.6%)
  • in UK Class 4 contests : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.01pts (+44.6%)
  • and here at Sedgefield : 1/1 for 1.67pts.

And for the last piece of data I’m sharing today, I’ll move away from trainer specifics and look at a more general picture. Since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 Handicap Chases, those runners priced at 6/4 to 7/1 racing 6 to 15 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 27 from 82 (32.9% SR) for 28.8pts (+35.1% ROI) and these include…

  • those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO are 27/79 (34.2%) for 31.8pts (+40.2%)
  • those now running in a Novice Handicap are 14/38 (36.8%) for 19.9pts (+52.4%)
  • those whose last run and current run were both Novice Hcp Chases are 14/36 (38.9%) for 21.9pts (+60.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 3m/3m½f are 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.3pts (+112.6%)
  • and those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO and are now running in a Novice Handicap over a trip of 3m/3m½f are 4/8 (50%) for 15.6pts (+194.7%)

I could go on, but I’ll leave you to take a look at the racecard for yourself, where you’ll see that jockey Brian Hughes is in good form (14 & 30 icons) and that he has a good strike rate at this track recently (C1 icon) and so on…

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by half a dozen firms as of 5.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Perth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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