Stat of the Day, 11th September 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

2.40 Perth : Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on outside, lost place before 13th, well beaten from next)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.25 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Right About Now @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 6 Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground, worth £3493 to the winner…  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has 2 wins and 2 places from his last six runs, of which he’s 2+2 from 5 over this 1m2f trip, including a win last time out at Yarmouth 16 days ago when piloted by today’s jockey, Seamus Cronin, for the very first time.

His yard is great form right now, too, with 3 winners from six runners this month so far and trainer Chris Dwyer has a good record at getting these lower-grade horses to string wins together. Since the start of 2013, his LTO winners running at Class 5 to 7, priced shorter than 10/1 are 22 from 60 (36.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+41% ROI), from which…

  • 3-5 yr olds are 20/48 (41.7%) for 32.3pts (+67.3%)
  • males are 14/38 (36.8%) for 25pts (+65.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/27 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+44.1%)
  • 11-20 days after that LTO win : 9/17 (52.9%) for 29.2pts (+171.8%)

Now, if Chris wants to take any prize money home this evening, all his eggs are in this one basket, as he has no other runners out today, but that hasn’t gone too badly for him in the past. Once again since the start of 2013, when represented by just one handicapper on the day, his record is a very commendable 63 from 387 (16.3% SR) for profits of 121pts (+31.4% ROI), from which…

  • those making a road trip of less than 125 miles from Newmarket are 58/332 (17.5%) for 136pts (+41.1%)
  • those competing for a pot worth less than £4k are 41/191 (21.5%) for 125.7pts (+66.2%)
  • on the Flat : 21/136 (15.4%) for 63.4pts (+47%)
  • at Class 6 : 23/106 (21.7%) for 84.8pts (+80.8%)
  • in September : 7/31 (22.6%) for 57.7pts (+186%)
  • and here at Leicester : 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.3pts (+181.4%)

all of which points to… a 1pt win bet on Right About Now @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 & SkyBet as of 5.05pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 5.25 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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