Stat of the Day, 12th September 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

5.25 Leicester : Right About Now @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Led, pushed along over 2f, ridden and edged left over 1f out, headed approaching final furlong, kept on one pace )

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.05 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 13-runner, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground, worth £3119 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago at Perth (Class 4, 2m 0.5f) and then ran well in a 2-length defeat as runner-up at Sedgefield over the same trip next/last time out 13 days ago. These two runs make him a qualifier for my 1-234 microsystem…

…which essentially looks for NH handicappers who who won and then finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO (so the form reads 12,13 or 14) and now run after a rest shorter than three weeks.

There are a few other rules used to reduce the number of qualifiers down to a workable amount, such as… no use of the word firm in the going report, nothing beyond 3.5 miles, an OR of -2 to +11 from LTO, a class move of -2 to +2 and a distance move of -4.5f to +8.5f. These are purposefully broad ranges to eliminate chance or a suggestion of back-fitting.

Applying the rules has given 197 winners from 929 runners (21.2% SR) for profits of 292.2pts (+31.5% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this race in mind, they include…

  • 11-20 days since last run : 135/716 (18.9%) for 204.3pts (+28.5%)
  • no class move : 114/537 (21.2%) for 77pts (+14.4%)
  • hurdlers : 95/476 (20%) for 139.5pts (+29.3%)
  • runner-up LTO : 102/445 (22.9%) for 127.6pts (+28.7%)
  • same distance or -0.5f from LTO : 63/277 (22.7%) for 84.7pts (+30.6%)
  • beaten by 2L or less LTO : 61/216 (28.2%) for 106.2pts (+49.2%)
  • over 2m/2m0.5f : 46/197 (24.9%) for 144.7pts (+73.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 35/162 (21.6%) for 23.5pts (+14.6%)
  • 5 yr olds are 27/103 (26.2%) for 53.6pts (+52%)
  • in September : 16/63 (25.4%) for 13.9pts (+22.1%)
  • and here at Uttoxeter : 13/54 (24.1%) for 45pts (+83.4%)

I’ll wrap up with a quick word about today’s jockey, Danny Cook, because he rides this track very well, winning 10 of 49 races (20.4% SR) here since the start of 2015 generating profits of 92pts at an ROI of 187.7% and these include…

  • over hurdles : 6/22 (27.3%) for 101.9pts (+463%)
  • over this 2m trip : 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.54pts (+161.5%)
  • and over this 2m hurdles course and distance : 2/5 (40%) for 15.64pts (+312.8%)

which gives us… a 1pt win bet on Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by over half a dozen firms as of 6.05pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 5.05 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *