Stat of the Day, 13th September 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

5.05 Uttoxeter : Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Mid-division, not fluent 3 out or 2 out, headway before last, kept on flat)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.25 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good ground, worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

These 14 runners are collectively 1 win from 69 in their admittedly relatively short careers to date, yet our “girl” is 1 from 5, having scored in another 5f Nursery last time out when making all 20 days ago and I wouldn’t be too surprised if she doesn’t attempt the same thing from stall 1 today.

Her yard is in good form, as Joseph Tuite’s runners have won 3 from 7 in the past 10 days, but then again he does tend to do well in September. His overall career record (ie since 2011) in the month of September shows 17 winners from 102 handicap races with the decent 16.7% strike rate producing profits of 62pts at a very healthy ROI of 60.8%, from which…

  • over trips no further than a mile : 16/79 (20.3%) for 81.2pts (+102.8%)
  • in Nursery contests : 4/16 (25%) for 19.83pts (+123.6%)
  • and at this minimum trip : 3/15 (20%) for 17.4pts (+116.1%)

Joseph doesn’t actually send very many horses on the 150 mile trip West from Lambourn to Trimsaran, but he has still managed to land a couple of wins from seven handicap attempts over the last couple of years, so he’s not a complete stranger to the winners’ enclosure here in South Wales.

Also, since the start of 2015, he has done pretty well at getting his horses to land back to back successes, as his LTO winners are 14 from 65 (21.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+38.6% ROI) in handicap contests during that time with his 2 year olds winning 2 of 2 for 5.67pts (+283.5%).

Jason Watson will be in the saddle today and he’s generally very good value for his 3lb claim, which negates the rise in weight for Sylvias Mother’s win last time out and Jason has been averaging a strike rate of almost 20% for some time now, whilst this year alone when riding the favourite he has 28 wins from 68 (41.2% SR) for 6.46pts (+9.5% ROI), bucking the general trend of favourites.

Of those 68 rides…

  • over 5/6 furlongs : 9/20 (45%) for 6.83pts (+34.1%)
  • on 2yr olds : 3/4 (75%) for 3.53pts (+88.3%)
  • and on 2yr olds over 5/6 furlongs : 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 2.88pts (+95.9%)

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG, prices offered by Betfair & Paddy Power respectively as of 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ffos Las

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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