Stat of the Day, 14th September 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

3.25 Ffos Las : Sylvias Mother @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Chased leaders, every chance disputing 2nd 2f out until over 1f out, went 2nd again inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.30 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 2 Optional Claiming Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground, worth £19407 to the winner…

Why?

I’m going to keep this relatively short and simple today with a 6 yr old gelding who was a decent third (beaten by half a length) in a more valuable Class 2 contest at the Ebor meeting at York recently, but was then only 6th next/last time out at the Curragh when not getting the race run to suit him 13 days ago, so the ability is there, but things might need to fall better for him.

From a numbers perspective, trainer David O’Meara record over the last five Flat seasons with males racing over 6/7 furlongs after a short break of 4-20 days (ie rested but not rusty) currently stands at 74/511 (14.5% SR) for 60.2pts (+11.8% ROI), from which…

  • those who failed to win LTO are 61/444 (13.7%) for 71.9pts (+16.2%)
  • with the word “good” in the going description : 62/419 (14.8%) for 90.7pts (+21.7%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 56/288 (19.4%) for 54.6pts (+19%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths LTO are 42/255 (16.5%) for 69.8pts (+27.4%)
  • in 4yo+ races : 15/114 (13.2%) for 59.4pts (+52.1%)
  • off a mark (OR) of 99-111 : 9/63 (14.3%) for 106.5pts (+169%)
  • and in a claimer : 2/8 (25%) for 7.2pts (+90%)

AND…from the above…those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths, 4-20 days earlier and are now priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 26/129 (20.2% SR) for 27.6pts (+21.4% ROI) with 55% of them making the frame…

I’m well aware that stablemate Rousayan would also qualify for that stat, but our pick looks the better horse of the two and is boosted by the presence of the in-form Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Jamie rode a nice winner at Doncaster yesterday, but pitches up here instead today, which hopefully will be to our benefit.

Jamie has ridden 20 winners in 79 races (25.3% SR) over the past 30 days and a £10 stake on each of them would have realised a profit of £220 at an ROI of 27.8%, with even better numbers coming over shorter trips where judgement of the race pace is even more important, winning 13 of 44 (29.5%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs for a return of 30.93pts at an excellent ROI of 70.3%…

prompting me to place… a 1pt win bet on Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG , prices offered by Ladbrokes & Coral respectively as of 5.05pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 4.30 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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