Stat of the Day, 15th September 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

4.30 Sandown : Firmament @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up off the pace towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 5 Handicap (AW)  for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack, worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

A very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last 11 starts, winning three times including two successes in his last three outings, concluding with a Class 5 win over a mile last time out nine days ago, taking his record over this trip to 23131.

He, like Thursday’s pick, is trained by Joseph Tuite and as I went through his recent form and his general September form just two days ago for you, I won’t bore you by repeating the numbers. If however, you need a reminder, those details are right here.

What I do want to look at is Mr Tuite’s record at getting winners to reproduce their form and since the start of 2015, his LTO winners are 15 from 78 (19.2% SR) for 14.8pts (+19% ROI), including of note/relevance today…

  • handicappers are 14/66 (21.2%) for 24.1pts (+36.5%)
  • males are 13/57 (22.8%) for 28.1pts (+49.4%)
  • on the A/W : 9/34 (26.5%) for 5.07pts (+14.9%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 12/31 (38.7%) for 14.6pts (+47%)
  • and after a short 6-10 day rest : 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.68pts (+59%)

AND…from the above… male A/W handicappers priced at 9/2 and shorter are 6/15 (40% SR) for 8.56pts (+57% ROI), of which those who ran just 6-10 days earlier are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.84pts (+161.4%)

providing the basis for… a 1pt win bet on Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG, a price offered by more then half a dozen firms as of 6.55pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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