Stat of the Day, 19th September 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

4.30 Lingfield : Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led towards finish to win by a neck)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.55 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £5531 to the winner…

Why?

Well, I’m going to keep it fairly simple again with this 3 yr old filly who has improved for the step up in trip to 1m2f (and 1 run at 1m4f), making the frame in all six starts at the longer trip(s). She was only beaten by half a length last time out (9 days ago) and runs off the same mark and under the same jockey today.

That jockey is Silvestre de Sousa and in two rides on this filly, he has a win and that narrow defeat as a runner-up, whilst the horse herself has won 3 of 7 in fields of 8-11 runners and she’s 2 from 2 after a break of 7 to 10 days.

Her trainer Michael Bell is 14/80 (17.5% SR) for 15pts (+18.7% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2010 and these include (of relevance today, of course!)…

  • in handicaps : 9/55 (16.4%) for 19.4pts (+35.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 9/45 (20%) for 17.25pts (+38.3%)
  • on Good ground : 5/31 (16.1%) for 22.7pts (+73.3%)
  • at odds of 11/2 and shorter : 10/28 (35.7%) for 13.8pts (+49.3%)
  • female runners are 4/25 (16%) for 7.05pts (+28.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.2pts (+151.4%)
  • in September : 2/9 (22.2%) for 9.56pts (+106.2%)
  • and those beaten by a head to a length LTO are 4/7 (57.1%) for 23.6pts (+337.1%)

Now, you might have noticed no trainer/jockey stats in that list there, that’s because Silvestre de Sousa hasn’t ridden a Michael Bell horse here at Sandown as far as I’m aware, but he has ridden 18 winners from 80 (22.5% SR) on this track for other trainers over the last three seasons, so he clearly rides this one well. Those winners have generated 11.32pts profit at an ROI of 14.2% and of the 80 rides…

  • handicappers are 13/54 (24.1%) for 9.64pts (+17.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 11/2 : 16/41 (39%) for 28.5pts (+69.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/35 (22.9%) for 5.8pts (+16.6%)
  • and at Class 5 : 9/25 (36%) for 19.22pts (+76.9%)

AND…from the above…3 yr old handicappers priced at 5/4 to 11/2 are 6/14 (42.9%) for 9.28pts (+66.3% ROI) with 5 of the 8 “losers” making the frame and Class 5 runners winning 3 of 5 (60%) for profits of 4.46pts (+89.2%)…

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by the first three firms (BF, PP & B365) to have shown their hand by 5.05pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 4.55 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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