Stat of the Day, 20th September 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

4.55 Sandown : Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Well off the pace in last pair in main group, sustained headway on wide outside hung right and went 2nd over 1f out, led inside final furlong, stayed on well)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.15 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground, worth £6469 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding caught the eye when winning at (relatively) nearby Ripon 23 days ago over this same trip in a better (C3) contest than the one he faces today. He is admittedly up 5lbs for that win, but in fairness he did fairly hose up, making all without going flat out to finish 3L ahead of his nearest rival. The rise in weight is partially offset by the jockey’s 3lb claim and the drop in class should also help his/our cause.

Trainer Roger Fell is 13 from 86 (15.1% SR) for 14.1pts (+16.4% ROI) with his LTO winners, of whose those racing on the Flat (turf) 10/65 (15.4%) for 21.8pts (+33.6%) and of these 65 runners those whose LTO win was 11-25 days earlier are 5 from 26 (19.2%) for 26.94pts (+103.6%)

i.e. Roger Fell’s male LTO winners running on the Flat 11-25 days after that win are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 28.94pts (+120.6% ROI)

In addition to the above, if you’d blindly backed all Roger’s Flat handicappers priced at 5/2 to 8/1 over trips of 1m3f and shorter during his short training career to date, you’d have already bagged yourself 35 winners from 182 (19.2% SR), earning yourself 39.7pts profit at an ROI of 21.8%…

enough (IMO) to risk… a 1pt win bet on Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening, although I’ll be settling up officially based on the 9/2 BOG from 10Bet, Ladbrokes and SportPesa . To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Pontefract

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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