Stat of the Day, 21st September 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

3.15 Pontefract : Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Led, strongly challenged over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on under pressure but beaten by stablemate by 0.5 length) basically right trainer, wrong horse : nice 40/1 exacta for someone!

Friday’s pick runs in the…

8.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

In line with the rest of the week so far, I’m playing it simple again today. Here we’ve got a likeable 8 yr old gelding that I fancied to do well in this race even before I dug the numbers out. I knew he had a good record over this track/trip and was possibly a little unlucky to be beaten by a neck last time out. These factors allied to what seemed a generous opening show from the bookies made the final decision quite easy.

So, back to 18 days ago, when he was headed late on over this course and distance at 11/1, conceding a stone to the 3/1 favourite who just pipped him, so no disgrace there and there’s the possibility that a third run inside 8 days was just too much in the end and he should be fresher today.

But what stats do I have to back up a fancy?

Well, with a career of 135 races behind him so far, he’s hardly unexposed, but he does well in certain conditions, especially those prevalent today. Of those 135 prior engagement, his record on the All-Weather is excellent with 10 wins from 47 (21.3% SR) for a modest 2.14pts (+4.55% ROI) profit, as he does tend to get backed and here is how he scored those 10 A/W wins, based on today’s conditions, of course…

  • 10 came from 33 races (30.3%) over the 5f trip for profits of 16.14pts (+48.9%)
  • 9 from 22 (40.9%) when sent off at 6/1 or shorter for 16.93pts (+77%)
  • 8 from 17 (47.1%) when 2nd or 3rd LTO for 17.36pts (+102.1%)
  • 7 from 34 (20.6%) in handicaps for 8.68pts (+25.5%)
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) at Class 6 for 6.44pts (+22.2%)
  • 5 from 27 (18.5%) on a straight track for 3.53pts (+13.1%)
  • 5 from 26 (19.2%) here on the Tapeta at Newcastle for 4.53pts (+17.4%)
  • 5 from 23 (21.7%) over today’s course and distance for 7.53pts (+32.7%)
  • 5 from 20 (25%) when running off a mark (OR) of 50-60 for 10.53pts (+52.7%)
  • 5 from 19 (26.3%) at the age of 7/8 for 11.53pts (+60.7%)
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) when a runner-up LTO for 12.23pts (+135.8%)
  • 4 from 14 (28.6%) wearing a visor for 11.42pts (+81.6%)
  • 4 from 12 (33.3%) coming off a break of 16-45 days for 6.21pts (+51.8%)
  • 4 from 5 (80%) when only beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO for 15.78pts (+315.5%)

…OR…you could just back him on the A/W over the minimum 5f at SPs of 6/1 or shorter after a top 3 finish LTO : this would have given you 9 winners from 10 (90% SR : the loser was third, beaten by just half a length!) for a profit of some 28.93pts at an ROI of 289.3%!

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 at 5.10pm on Thursday evening, the first firm to break cover, whilst I’ll be using SkyBet’s 4/1 BOG should it be a winner. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…

…click here for the betting on the 8.50 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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