Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

8.50 Newcastle : Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace under pressure final furlong, no impression) 

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Florencio @ 7/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground, worth £6469 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner on yard debut 16 days ago, when scoring comfortably by 2 lengths over 7f at Laytown earlier in the month off today’s mark of 75 taking his record over the last six races to 3 wins and 2 places including a formline of 11251 over 7f.

After his recent move, he’s now with Jamie Osborne, whose LTO winners are 66/325 (20.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+11.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2010 and these include…

  • at odds of evens to 11/2 : 49/179 (27.4%) for 19.4pts (+10.9%)
  • since the start of 2016 : 22/123 (17.9%) for 24.6pts (+20%)
  • over 7f : 15/62 (24.2%) for 35.3pts (+56.9%)
  • in September/October : 13/59 (22%) for 48.5pts (+82.1%)
  • and when using a claimer jockey : 14/54 (25.9%) for 46pts (+85.2%)

Ryan Rossa is in the saddle today, he claims 3lbs and now rides for Jamie for the 15th time, having won three times from the previous fourteen (21.4% SR) for profits of 4pts at an ROI of 28.5% so far…

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Florencio @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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