Stat of the Day, 25th September 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

4.00 Hamilton : Where’s Jeff @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders on inside, pushed along 3f out, kept on same pace final furlong, went 3rd post) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 1m on Polytrack, worth £4658 to the winner…

A 2 yr old colt who was unimpressive on Turf if I’m honest, failing to make the frame in any of his five efforts over trips of 5, 5.5, 6 and 7 furlongs. He was then switched to the A/W four weeks ago and has gone 2 from 2 since, winning by 5 lengths at Lingfield and then again 5 days later at Newcastle by 2 lengths 22 days ago. The first of those wins was the only that he has been ridden by today’s jockey, the in-form Oisin Murphy (more on him shortly!)

Trainer James Tate is 15 from 48 (31.25% SR) for 13.8pts (+28.8% ROI) here at Chelmsford with horses priced at evens to 6/1, from which…

  • in handicaps : 9/31 (29%) for 13.18pts (+42.5%)
  • September to November : 7/15 (46.7%) for 12.71pts (+84.7%)
  • 2 yr olds : 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+45.5%)
  • Class 5 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 5.04pts (+45.8%)
  • Nurseries : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.2pts (+273.2%)

I mentioned that our jockey Oisin Murphy was in good touch of late and this thought is verified by his 27 winners from 120 (22.5% SR) over the last 30 days that have generated 32.3pts profit at an ROI of 26.9%, whilst overall in Class 5/6 handicaps here at Chelmsford, he is 17/95 (17.9%) SR) for 23.9pts (+25.2% ROI) and these include…

  • at 1m and beyond : 14/61 (23%) for 33.7pts (+55.2%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 : 13/48 (27.1%) for 29.3pts (+61.1%)
  • and at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 over trips of 1m and beyond : 11/31 (35.5%) for 37.2pts (+119.9%)

And I’m going to wrap this one up with a quick nod towards our boy’s sire, Moohaajim, who was very lightly raced, but won 2 of 5 starts including a Group 2 contest. This season is the first that his progeny have hit the track and after a slow start to the season, his offspring are firing the winners in. Over the last week, his 2 yr olds are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 89.2pts (+495.8% ROI), from which…

  • those sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter have won 6 of 9 (66.6%) for 14.62pts (+162.5%)
  • handicappers are 3/6 (50%) for 4.7pts (+78.4%)
  • on the A/W : 3/5 (60%) for 6.72pts (+134.4%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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