Stat of the Day, 26th September 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

5.45 Chelmsford : Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd approaching final furlong, led entering final furlong, soon clear, winning by 2.75L) 

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.40 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1f on Soft ground, worth £8022 to the winner…

This 7 yr old is admittedly on a fairly lengthy losing run (but as we know, they all end eventually!), but showed signs of a return to some semblance of form when possibly a little unlucky not to have least made the frame over further than at Newbury five days ago.

He does look well suited/handicapped today running off a mark of 85 in a Class 4 contest on Soft ground, considering his last win came off 95 on Soft at Class 2 and with today’s conditions in mind, it’s worth noting that to date…

  • four of his five career wins have come within 30 days of his last run
  • 3 of those 5 wins were on ground with soft in the going description
  • he has won one Listed race and 3 at Class 2
  • stays 1m2.5f, so stamina not a concern

Having checked the market at 8.30am, it’s quite possible that he’ll go off as favourite and it’s a common thought that backing favourites is an easy route to the poor house and whilst that is true backing them blindly, the opposite is the case with runners trained by Rod Millman, whose horses sent off with a favourite tag are 77 from 244 (31.6% SR) for 41.7pts (+17.1% ROI), from which Class 4 runners are 14/39 (35.9%) for 9.5pts (+24.4%) and Soft ground runners are 7/24 (29.2%) for 1.55pts (+6.5%).

Another positive factor for me here is the booking of Oisin Murphy in the saddle, I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well right now, an observation backed up by his 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) over the past week, including 2 winners and a place from 5 rides at Chelmsford last night which kicked off by him delivering a well-timed 7/2 winner for SotD!

Oisin also has a good record when riding for Rod Millman, winning 17 of 104 (16.4% SR) for profits of 100.4pts (+96.5% ROI), from which…

  • in handicaps : 16/87 (18.4%) for 89.3pts (+102.6%)
  • male runners are 15/79 (19%) for 92.3pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m2f : 13/77 (16.9%) for 100.4pts (+130.4%)
  • on the Flat : 12/74 (16.2%) for 78.8pts (+106.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 5/35 (14.3%) for 21pts (+60%)

AND…from the above… O. Murphy + R. Millman + Males + 5f to 10f + Flat handicaps = 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 61.8pts (+143.7% ROI). I’m acutely aware that this stat also fits Handytalk in the 3.05 race here today, but I don’t think he’s as likely to win as our pick, but I wouldn’t put you off a small E/W punt if you liked the look of it…

leaving us with… a 1pt win bet on Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG , a price offered by over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Bet365 were slightly longer at 11/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…

…click here for the betting on the 4.40 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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