Stat of the Day, 27th September 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

4.40 Goodwood : Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, carried left after, bumped slightly inside final furlong, led close home) 

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.25 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground, worth £12450 to the winner…

Why?

A lightly raced, so therefore relatively unexposed 4 yr old gelding makes just his sixth start today, but has made the frame in each of his previous five outings in a form line reading 32111 and comes here off the back of a win in a similar Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2.5f on good to soft ground, so he should be fine with race conditions.

That win took him to 2 from 2 on Turf, 2/2 in handicaps and 2/2 at 10-10.5 furlongs and was actually his yard debut for trainer Kevin Frost whose horses are going really well right now, having won 9 of 31 (29% SR) for 43.8pts (+141.4% ROI) over the past two months, from which (and of note/relevance today)…

  • male runners are 8/26 (30.8%) for 32.2pts (+123.7%)
  • handicappers are 6/26 (23.1%) for 33.1pts (+127.5%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 8/22 (36.4%) for 27.1pts (+123.3%)
  • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 7/20 (35%) for 12.45pts (+62.25%)
  • at trips of 10.5f and shorter : 6/17 (35.3%) for 41.2pts (+242.4%)
  • his only runner of the day : 5/16 (31.25%) for 31.7pts (+198%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 3/10 (30%) for 22.84pts (+228.4%)
  • LTO winners are 4/7 (57.1%) for 30.6pts (+437.1%)
  • and on the Flat : 2/6 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+606.3%)

As seen above, his LTO winners have a good record of following up and that has been the case for most of this year with 6 of 14 (42.9% SR) managing to “double up” generating profits of 33.2pts (+237.2% ROI) and these include…

  • 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 14.51pts (+207.3%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 36.57pts (+609.5%) from his 3 & 4 yr olds
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 5.89pts (+98.2%) after less than three weeks rest
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 24.75pts (+495%) when using a jockey claiming 3lbs
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 31.11pts (+777.8%) over trips of 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs

pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG , a price offered by all five firms to have broken cover by 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…

…click here for the betting on the 4.25 Pontefract

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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