Wednesday’s Pick was…
4.40 Goodwood : Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, carried left after, bumped slightly inside final furlong, led close home)
Thursday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG
In a 12-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground, worth £12450 to the winner…
A lightly raced, so therefore relatively unexposed 4 yr old gelding makes just his sixth start today, but has made the frame in each of his previous five outings in a form line reading 32111 and comes here off the back of a win in a similar Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2.5f on good to soft ground, so he should be fine with race conditions.
That win took him to 2 from 2 on Turf, 2/2 in handicaps and 2/2 at 10-10.5 furlongs and was actually his yard debut for trainer Kevin Frost whose horses are going really well right now, having won 9 of 31 (29% SR) for 43.8pts (+141.4% ROI) over the past two months, from which (and of note/relevance today)…
- male runners are 8/26 (30.8%) for 32.2pts (+123.7%)
- handicappers are 6/26 (23.1%) for 33.1pts (+127.5%)
- within 30 days of their last run : 8/22 (36.4%) for 27.1pts (+123.3%)
- at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 7/20 (35%) for 12.45pts (+62.25%)
- at trips of 10.5f and shorter : 6/17 (35.3%) for 41.2pts (+242.4%)
- his only runner of the day : 5/16 (31.25%) for 31.7pts (+198%)
- using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 3/10 (30%) for 22.84pts (+228.4%)
- LTO winners are 4/7 (57.1%) for 30.6pts (+437.1%)
- and on the Flat : 2/6 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+606.3%)
As seen above, his LTO winners have a good record of following up and that has been the case for most of this year with 6 of 14 (42.9% SR) managing to “double up” generating profits of 33.2pts (+237.2% ROI) and these include…
- 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 14.51pts (+207.3%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
- 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 36.57pts (+609.5%) from his 3 & 4 yr olds
- 3 from 6 (50%) for 5.89pts (+98.2%) after less than three weeks rest
- 2 from 5 (40%) for 24.75pts (+495%) when using a jockey claiming 3lbs
- and 3 from 4 (75%) for 31.11pts (+777.8%) over trips of 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs
…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG , a price offered by all five firms to have broken cover by 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!