Stat of the Day, 28th September 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

4.25 Pontefract : Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG (=3.6/1 after 20p R4) WON at 5/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway over 2f out, switched right over 1f out, stayed on to lead inside final 150 yards, soon clear, eased towards finish, winning by 1.75 lengths) 

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG  

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In a 9-runner, Fillies Group 2, Flat contest (the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good ground, worth £56710 to the winner…

Why?

This 2yr old filly (obviously!) has won 4 of her 6 starts so far, including 2 x Group 3’s. She’s never run on genuinely good ground before but is 3 from 4 on Good to Soft / Good to Firm, she’s 4 from 5 on a straight track and 3 from 4 and since winning on debut is 3 from 4 after a rest of less than 30 days.

Her trainer Mark Johnston is 8 from 46 (17.4% SR) for 27pts (+58.6% ROI) over the last 7 days and here on the Rowley track at HQ has saddled up 49 winners from 388 (12.6% SR) for 168.6pts (+43.5% ROI) over the last 8 (inc. this one)seasons, including…

  • after 6 to 15 days rest : 32/136 (23.5%) for 334pts (+245.6%)
  • in September : 11/82 (13.4%) for 12.5pts (+15.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 13/78(16.7%) for 9.57pts (+12.3%)
  • at the Cambridgeshire meeting : 8/58 (13.8%) for 16.4pts (+28.2%)
  • and at Group 2 : 3/12 (25%) for 6.33pts (+52.8%)

And who would you want in the saddle for a competitive Group race at HQ?

Frankie, of course!

The irrepressible Mr Dettori has only got two rides booked today and this look his best chance, so we should see him give everything he’s got here. He’s been in the frame in 10 of his last 11 rides, including 4 wins and 4 runner-up finishes, whilst his overall record in Class 1 to 3 non-handicaps is exceptional.

Over the least 5 seasons in such contests, he is 142/589 (24.1% SR) for 177.5pts (+30.1%), including…

  • 118/505 (23.4%) for 152.3pts (+30.2%) at Class 1
  • 46/159 (28.9%) for 57.9pts (+36.4%) with 2 yr olds
  • 29/115 (25.2%) for 64.1pts (+55.8%) at Group 2
  • 35/110 (31.8%) for 62.5pts (+56.8%) on Class 1 2 yr olds
  • and 18/45 (40%) for 63pts (+140%) on Group 2 2 yr olds

AND…on The Rowley over the last 5 seasons, he has 39 winners from 205 (19% SR) for 94.8pts (+46.2% ROI) and this includes of relevance today…

  • in non-handicaps : 38/155 (24.5%) for 141.1pts (+91%)
  • at Class 1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 112.4pts (+115.9%)
  • on female horses : 23/86 (26.7%) for 108.9pts (+126.7%)
  • in female-only races : 21/73 (28.8%) for 94.9pts (+130.1%)
  • on 2 yr olds : 13/64 (20.3%) for 38.3pts (+59.8%)
  • over this 7f C&D : 18/60 (30%) for 92pts (+153.3%)
  • in September : 9/47 (19.2%) for 37.1pts (+78.9%)
  • for prizes of £50k or more : 8/44 (18.2%) for 42.7pts (+97.1%)
  • at the Cambridgeshire meeting : 9/41 (22%) for 43.1pts (+105.1%)
  • and at Group 2 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 45.3pts (+348.2%)

You can, of course, mix the above to make profitable micro-angles, but constraints of time prevent me doing that for you this morning (sorry again for the delay!), so the last suggestion…

that you place… a 1pt win bet on Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by SkyBet, Marathon, Betfred & Totesport at 4.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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