Saturday’s Pick was…
2.35 Chester : Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Raced keenly, chased leader on inside until 3f out, handy 3rd, switched right and stayed on inside final furlong, 2nd again final 50 yards, flattered by proximity to comfortable winner)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG
In a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner…
This 5 yr old gelding is arguably carrying enough weight today (more on that shortly), but he does appear to be bringing the best form to the table for this contest, having finished 24122 in his last five starts on turf. He handles pretty much all ground conditions and of his four turf wins to date…
- all 4 were after a short break of 1 to 5 weeks
- 3 were at Class 6
- 3 were over today’s 1m4f trip
- 3 were on left handed tracks
- and 1 (from just two rides) were with today’s jockey, Theodore Ladd (who claims 5lbs)
Gong back to the weight issue, Albert Boy’s best form is off marks in the high 50’s, so today’s 61 is probably as high as I’d be comfortable with, although he did win off 68 in the past, so I’m pleased to see a 5lb claimer in the saddle. This effectively puts him 2lbs lighter than when beaten by just 2 lengths LTO over half a furlong shorter, staying on well and closing in late on.
I had it in my mind that trainer Scott Dixon had done well at placing these 5lb claimer jockeys in the past, so I took a closer look and saw that since the start of 2013, his Class 6 runners were 13 from 71 (18.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+31.7% ROI) when partnered by such riders and those 71 included of relevance today…
- at 11/1 and shorter : 13/46 (28.3%) for 47.5pts (+103.3%)
- 4 to 15 days since last run : 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.5pts (+57.2%)
- 2017/18 : 10/40 (25) for 36.53pts (+91.4%)
- on the Flat :9/36 (25%) for 33.3pts (+92.4%)
- August – October : 8/259 (27.6%) for 27.8pts (+96%)
- 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115.4%)
- Catterick : 4/16 925%) for 10pts (+62.6%)
- LTO runner-up :3/10 (30%) for 6.4pts (+64%)
- Theo Ladd in the saddle : 2/5 940%) for 9.35pts (+187%)
- beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 2/3 966.6%) for 9.36pts (+312%)
And as for this promising claimer, Theo Ladd, you might be surprised to read that he’s actually been profitable to follow blindly so far in his short (170 rides) career, winning 24 times (14.1% SR). A £10 stake on all his rides to date would have yielded £464 profit at an ROI of 27.3% and his stats include…
- on the Flat : 18/100 (18%) for 62.5pts (+62.5%)
- at Class 6 : 16/92 (17.4%) for 58.2pts (+63.3%)
- at Class 6 on the Flat : 12/52 (23.1%) for 53.9pts (+103.6%)
- using his 5lb claim : 5/32 (15.6%) for 10.2pts (+31.7%)
- at Catterick : 2/12 916.6%) for 2pts (+16.6%)
- at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.06pts (+151%)
- and at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim here at Catterick : 1/2 (50%) for 2.56pts (+128%)
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!