Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

4.10 Catterick : Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Tracked winner, joined winner 4f out, ridden 2f out, no extra and lost 2nd inside final furlong) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Firm ground, worth £3119 to the winner…  

Why?

On a poor looking day of racing, where I can see many short-ish priced horses winning, the price taken about our pick might actually look decent for a 4 yr old gelding who won last time out at Newton Abbot 22 days ago and the runner-up that day has since gone on to win a Class 4 contest.

That LTO win was over slightly longer (2m1f) than today’s and the victorious jockey, Aidan Coleman, has retained the ride and indeed makes the journey here for just the one contest, which may or may not be significant.

That said, AC doesn’t venture to Sedgefield too often anyway, this will be only his 12th effort over hurdles at this track since the start of 2011. Mind you, he is 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 1.47pts (+13.3% ROI) in that time, including…

  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 6.47pts (+107.8%) at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 3/6 (50%) for 3.06pts (+51%) in handicaps
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.18pts (+54.5%) at Class 5

Aidan is also 6/24 (25% SR) for 1.81pts (+7.53% ROI) over hurdles for trainer Olly Murphy including 3 wins for 15 (20%) for 3.67pts (+24.4% ROI) in handicaps and the yard itself seems to be going well with 5 winners from 16 (31.25%) for 2.83pts (+17.7%) over the last 30 days, including a winner and a runner-up from two at Newton Abbot yesterday, taking the 30 day hurdles tally to 4/11 (36.4%) for 5.53pts (+50.3%)

In fact, backing all of Olly Murphy’s hurdlers so far in 2018 would give you 32 winners from 171 (18.7% SR) for 25.2pts (+14.7% ROI) and these include…

  • males at 26/126 (20.6%) for 50.9pts (+40.4%)
  • at 10/3 and shorter : 24/59 (40.7%) for 5.39pts (+9.14%)
  • over 2m/2m½f : 8.45 (17.8%) for 47.1pts (+104.7%)
  • and LTO winners are 11/24 (45.8%) for 1.39pts (+5.8%)

Most of today’s stats show healthy strike rates, but the ROIs don’t seem overly impressive. That doesn’t deter me, it just suggests that the runners are well backed and go off quite short, so taking the early price might well grab us a bit of value…

by placing… a 1pt win bet on Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Sedgefield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *