Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

2.00 Sedgefield : Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Mid-division, slow and lost place 4th, soon niggled along, closed after omitted 3 out, one pace and beaten 2 out, left 4th last) 

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

8.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Another Angel @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding who won over course and distance in a similar Class 6 contest here just five days ago making all : a tactic that works well here at Newcastle over 5f, so I’m hoping the same approach is taken again this evening.

Trainer Antony Brittain’s runners turned back out within a week of their last run are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 34.6pts (+80.5% ROI) since the start of last year, from which…

  • handicappers are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.6pts (+89.3%)
  • males are 10/32 (31.25%) for 45.6pts (+142.5%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 f : 7/28 (25%) for 22.1pts (+79%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/25 (36%) for 40.8pts (+163.4%)
  • on the A/W : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.5%)
  • over 5f : 3/13 (23.1%) for 5.16pts (+39.7%)
  • here at Newcastle : 3/6 (50%) for 13.7pts (+227.9%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/4 (50%) for 6pts (+150%)

AND…from the above…male Class 6 A/W handicappers are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 44.4pts (+341.7%) and these include…

  • at 5f to a mile : 6/10 (60%) for 29.9pts (+299%)
  • at Newcastle : 3/5 (60%) for 14.7pts (+294%)
  • over 5f : 2/4 (50%) for 2.4pts (+60%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/2 (100%) for 8pts (+400%)

…whilst more generally since 2013 in Class 5/6 A/W handicaps, horses who were winners at the same class, course and distance by up to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 within the previous 10 days = 89 from 250 (35.6% SR) for 47pts (+18.8% ROI) : an angle you might want to store.

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Another Angel @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG  , a price offered by Bet365  & Sky Bet at 5.00pm & 5.30pm on Tuesday evening (I’ll be declaring to 10/3, although 7/2 was available at 8.30am on race day). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.30 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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