Stat of the Day, 4th October 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

8.30 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 10/3 BOG WON at 11/4 (Made all, ran on strongly, clear over 1f out, ran on strongly, unchallenged winning by 2.75 lengths) 

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.05 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground, worth £6498 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is 3 from 5 over fences in the past 6 months, including 3 wins from 4 at this grade. far from disgraced in finishing third last time out 33 days ago in a better (C3) contest than this one, he is now sent on a 500-mile round trip to run here, down in both class and weight (-1lb from LTO). The distance might or might not be relevant, as there’s arguably an easier/shorter journey from Somerset to racing at Fontwell tomorrow.

Trainer Jeremy Scott is one worth keeping onside with his handicap chasers, who have been profitable to follow for each of the last five years, clocking up 53 winners from 287 (18.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 107.8pts at a healthy ROI of 37.6%. With today’s contest/conditions in mind, let’s look at just ten ways Jeremy has found those 53 profitable winners…

  1. Males are 52/272 (19.1%) for 117.1pts (+43.1%)
  2. 5 to 9 yr olds are 39/183 (21.3%) for 123.4pts (+67.4%)
  3. Those last seen 21-75 days earlier are 36/173 (20.8%) for 87.1pts (+50.3%)
  4. Those sent off at odds of 15/8 to 6/1 are 35/124 (28.2%) for 60.4pts (+48.7%)
  5. Those racing at Class 4 are 34/155 (21.9%) for 94.2pts (+60.8%)
  6. Those racing on officially Good ground are 28/144 (19.4%) for 47.9pts (+33.2%)
  7. Those racing in fields of 5 to 7 runners are 26/109 (23.9%) for 95.8pts (+87.8%)
  8. Those ridden by Matt Griffiths are 18/101 (17.8%) for 21.4pts (+21.2%)
  9. Those dropping down a class are 14/43 (32.6%) for 64.1pts (+149.2%)
  10. And those making a round trip of 450 miles or more are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.7pts (+99%) – yard clearly has no qualms about travelling.

All the above are, of course, applicable today, but if you wanted to reduce the number of bets made and also maybe combine some of the more winner-finding angles, you could try…5-9 yr old males sent off at 15/8 to 6/1 some 21 to 75 days after their last run : this simple and easy to follow angle has been worth 16 winners from 55 witht he 29.1% strike rate yielding 26.7pts profit at an ROI of 48.6%…

and would highlight… a 1pt win bet on Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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