Stat of the Day, 5th October 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

3.05 Huntingdon : Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leading pair, went right 3rd, outpaced when hit 4 out, not fluent 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on to press for modest 2nd closing stages, no chance with winner) 

Friday’s pick runs in the…

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £5531 to the winner…

Why?

Keeping it simple today with the inspiration from the pick coming mainly from our Horses for Courses report and also because I like the horse’s chances at the prices available!

He’s an 8 yr old gelding, who won here at Wolverhampton over 8.5 furlongs 34 days ago on what was just his fourth start for Donald McCain (better known for his NH exploits, of course!). The win took his record for the yard to 2 wins from 4 including 2 from 2 on the A/W, both on this track.

His overall record on the All-Weather is excellent, winning 7 of 21 (33.3% SR) for profits of 40.6pts (+193.5% ROI) and with today’s contest in mind, those 21 races have produced the following of note…

• going left handed : 6/19 (31.6%) for 35.6pts (+187.5%)
• wearing blinkers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 37.6pts (+221.4%)
• at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 : 6/15 940%) for 24.7pts (+164.8%)
• in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 7/14 (50%) for 47.6pts (+340.1%)
• at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 39.1pts (+325.9%)
• at the age of 8 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+216.1%)
• for Donald McCain : 2/2 (100%) for 19.2pts (+960%)
• at Class 4 : 1/2 (50%) for 9.93pts (+496.5%)
• over this 1.5 mile trip : 1/2 950%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%)
• and over today’s course and distance : 1/1 (100%) for 8.23pts (+411.5%)

And from the above, it’s worth pointing out that when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 here at Wolverhampton (going left handed, of course!) whilst wearing blinkers in fields of 5 to 11 runners, Barnaby Brook has won 4 of 7 (57.1% SR) for 22.2pts profit at an ROI of 317.3%. Of the three he failed to win, he was the runner-up, beaten by a length, 1.25 lengths and 1.5 lengths : so always on the premises under those conditions…

…pointing us towards… a 1pt win bet on Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betvictor & SkyBet at 5.20pm on Thursday evening, whilst Bet365 were standouts at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!