Stat of the Day, 6th October 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

7.45 Wolverhampton : Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG 8th at 20/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out) – something clearly amiss here, this was never a stone last 20/1 shot.

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG  

In a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3f on Good ground, worth £9495 to the winner… 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 11121 in his last 5 runs, all in handicap hurdle contests (1121 under today’s jockey Harry Skelton) and whilst this is a tougher assignment, he’s in imperious form as demonstrated by his win LTO at Uttoxeter 24 days ago, when he cruised home by 18 lengths, unchallenged and unextended.

The Dan/Harry Skelton angle is a well worn path that continues to bear fruit and I’ve mentioned it often enough that you’re probably sick of seeing the numbers. So, I’ll take it on trust that you’re happy to proceed with my repeating the figures and we’ll find some other angles to back up our selection.

Let’s start with the sire, Notnowcato, as his offspring are 34/166 (20.5% SR) over hurdles since the start of 2015 and backed blindly to a £10 stake have generated £1081.10 profit at Betfair SP after an assumed 5% commission at an ROI of 65.1%. This alone is an excellent starting point, any blind approach that pays well is good!

Amongst those 166 runners of relevance today…

  • males are 31/154 (201.1%) for 103.1pts (+66.9%)
  • over trips of 2m5f and shorter : 31/126 (24.6%) for 122.7pts (+97.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 18/98 (18.4%) for 83.1pts (+84.8%)
  • on Good ground : 19/60 (31.7%) for 63.4pts (+105.6%)
  • during the final third of the year (Sept-Dec) : 17/58 (29.3%) for 105.8pts (+182.4%)
  • in 2018 so far : 11/34 (32.4%) for 35.2pts (+103.5%)
  • 7/8 yr olds are 6/26 (23.1%) for 8.85pts (+34%)
  • and those rated (OR) 140 to 149 are 8 from 9 (88.9%) for 23.24pts (+258.2%)

The horse is also of interest to me because I do like to back runners who won pretty comfortably last out and Notnow Seamus was flagged up as a qualifier for a microsystem of mine that looks far more complicated in print than it is in application! Basically it revolves around 5-11 yr olds who won a handicap hurdle LTO by more than 4 lengths.

Such runners are 192 from 597 (32.1% SR) for 181.3pts (+30.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 when the following (and here’s where it gets a little more complex!) conditions have been met…UK hcp hurdle race / trip of 3m or shorter / Class 2 to 5 / an OR increased by 0 to 14lbs from LTO / same class or up by 1 from LTO / same trip or down by 0.5 to 2 furlongs from LTO… And with today’s race in mind, those 597 qualifiers are…

  • Up by 1 class : 59/251 (23.5%) for 33.2pts (+13.2%)
  • Won by 10 to 20 lengths LTO : 48/130 (36.9%) for 62.8pts (+48.3%)
  • Those dropping back in trip by 1f are 28/86 (32.6%) for 25.9pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 16/55 (29.1%) for 22.1pts (+40.2%)
  • at this 2m3f trip : 9/33 (27.3%) for 9.64pts (+29.2%)
  • and those with a mark (OR) raised 12lbs from LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.2pts (+87%)

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.55pm on Friday evening and still readily available at 10.00am on Saturday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Fontwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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