Stat of the Day, 9th October 2018
Monday’s Pick was…
3.20 Stratford : Who’s My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Mid-division, headway 2 out, soon chasing leaders, kept on same pace approaching last)
Tuesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Chitra @ 5/1 BOG
In a 12-runner, Class 6, Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner…
Why?
This 2yr old filly has finished 121 in Nursery races so far, all over 6f and all at Class 6, including landing a big-field (19 ran!) contest LTO at relatively nearby Redcar 13 days ago. She was better than the half length margin of victory would suggest that day, as he was prominent throughout and quickly asserted control with a furlong to run, looking like she had plenty in hand.
She’s the only distance winner in this field whose career tally to date stands at just 3 wins from 65, of which she is 2 from 6!
Her trainer Daniel Kubler sends her here today in a bid to improve an already decent record with LTO winners who are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 8.78pts (+48.8% ROI) when sent off in handicap races at odds of 5/1 and shorter over the last four years. Of those 18, Class 6 runners are 3 from 7 and jockey Tony Hamilton is 1 from 2, but more relevant today are the following from those 18 LTO winners…
- Daniel’s only runner at the track : 6/15 (40%) for 8.38pts (+55.8%)
- less than 3 weeks rest : 6/15 (40%) for 6.24pts (+41.6%)
- in fields of 7-12 runners : 7/13 (53.8%) for 13.78pts (+106%)
- same trip as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 7.76pts (+77.6%)
- same class as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%)
- and at the same class and trip as the LTO win : 3/5 (60%) for 8.48pts (+169.6%)
Now, Daniel also has just one runner at Brighton today, who is another LTO winner, also priced shorter than 5/1 in a Class 6 handicap. She also runs in a 12-runner field at the same class (and track, too) as her last win and with Daniel having a decent record at Brighton, I’d not dissuade you from a small punt on Nyala at 4/1 BOG in the 4.35 race…
…but my main selection is… a 1pt win bet on Chitra @ 5/1 BOG, a price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Catterick
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!
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