Stat of the Day, 11th October 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

4.40 Ludlow : Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Led until 3rd, chased leader, jumped into lead 5th, went left 3 out 2 out and last, hung left and headed run-in, no extra in 3rd)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.15 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG  

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding brings the best recent form to the table of all 8 runners in this contest, having won 2 of his last 3 (121) outings with wins here at Bangor over 2m3.5f and at Uttoxeter last time out (18 days ago) over 3 miles sandwiching a defeat by just a neck over 3m2.5f at Sedgefield, so the trip shouldn’t be a concern today.

All three of those races were on Good or Good to Soft ground and all were after 17 days rest from his previous run, so he’s getting similar conditions here today. His yard is in good nick right now with 5 winners from 22 (22.7% SR) over the last fortnight generating 270.1pts profit at an ROI of 1227.7%, admittedly skewed by a 100/1 winner that paid 294/1 at Betfair SP, but that doesn’t affect the strike rate!

In fact, his trainer Donald McCain is based just 12 miles away from Bangor over the border in Cheshire and has been a regualr and successful visitor to this track in recent years, clocking up 109 winners from 514 runners (21.2% SR) since the start of 2011. Had you been lucky enough to stick £20 on each of them , you’d now have a profit of £3916, equating to a 38.1% return on your investment!

Of these 514 runners, his hurdlers have won 78 of 327 (23.9% SR) for 237pts (+72.5% ROI), so it’d be wiser to focus on those and with that and today’s race in mind, here’s just a dozen ways that Donald has got his 78 hurdle wins here at Bangor…

1. Males are 71/289 (24.6%) for 216.9pts (+75%)
2. Class 4 runners are 54/213 (25.4%) for 115.7pts (+54.3%)
3. 5/6 yr olds are 47/183 (25.7%) for 176.3pts (+96.3%)
4. Novice hurdlers are 42/136 (30.9%) for 124pts (+91.2%)
5. Those last seen 6-25 days earlier are 41/119 (34.5%) for 169.2pts (+142.2%)
6. Good ground has yielded 36/152 (23.7%) for 78.9pts (+51.9%)
7. Handicappers are 31/154 (20.1%) for 103.1pts (+67%)
8. LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 21.1pts (+42.2%)
9. Those stepping up a class are 13/69 (18.8%) for 80.5pts (+116.7%)
10. Over this 2m7f course and distance : 9/26 (34.6%) for 30.1pts (+115.7%)
11. Novice handicap hurdlers are 6/18 (33.3%) for 43.5pts (+241.5%)
12. And those ridden by today’s jockey, Lorcan Murtagh are 3 from 10 (30%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%)

You can, of course, mix and match the above logical angles to make your own micro-systems, but that does dilute the sample size the more angles you add. If you wanted a simple approach for just a small number of bets per year, then 5 yr old male Class 4 Novice Hurdlers are 16/44 (36.4% SR) for 89.7pts (+204% ROI) with those retuning from a short 6 to 25 day absence winning 8 of 23 (34.8%) for 62.1pts (+270.2%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG, a price available from Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook at 5.30pm on Wednesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Bangor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!