Stat of the Day, 12th October 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

2.15 Bangor : Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG UR at 9/4 (Took keen hold, led, going well enough before blundered and unseated rider at 4th)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG  

…in an 11-runner, Class 2, Heritage Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good to Firm ground worth £74700 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old colt has finished 41111 so far, including 4/4 under today’s jockey Donnacha O’Brien, 3/4 on the Flat, 2/2 at 1m4f and 2/2 in handicaps. He’s won on Good, Soft and A/W too so the ground shouldn’t be an issue either. This is a tougher task than he’s faced so far but (a) that’s why were not facing really short odds and (b) I think he has plenty more in his locker.

Over the last 14 days…

  • Trainer Aidan (AP) O’Brien is 16/52 (30.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • Jockey Donnacha is 8/28 (28.6%) for 1.91pts (+6.81%)
  • And together they are 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.56pts (+38.6%)

And here on the Rowley over the last four seasons…

  • AP is 27/113 (23.9%) for 59.9pts (+53%)
  • Donnacha is 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.54pts (+104.5%)
  • And together : 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.54pts (+172.7%)

And from AP’s 27 from 113 record here quoted above…

  • 11-45 days since last run : 17/64 (26.6%) for 65.8pts (+102.8%)
  • on Good to Firm : 16/50 (32%) for 74.9pts (+149.8%)
  • LTO winners : 14/44 (31.8%) for 16.9pts (+38.4%)
  • 3 yr olds : 9/45 920%) for 11.6pts (+25.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.66pts (+138%)

And, since the start of 2015, Irish horses (ie those with IRE after their name) are 131/998 (13.1% SR) for 131.3pts (+13.2% ROI) in UK Flat/AW handicaps after having run in Ireland last time out, from which…

  • those whose yard run most of their races in Leinster, Ireland are 88/531 (16.6%) for 165.7pts (+31.2%)
  • 16-25 days since last run : 36/202 (17.8%) for 76pts (+37.6%)
  • over a 1m4f trip : 16/81 (19.75%) for 84.6pts (+104.5%)

…and from the above, there’s a nice little micro (or nugget as someone on the Gold forum very kindly described these supplementary angles) whereby in this 2015-18 timeframe, those whose yard run most of their races in Leinster, Ireland and are now racing over 7.5 to 12 furlongs, within 25 days of their last run are 33/129 (25.6% SR) for 133.9pts (+103.8% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 for 33.9pts over the last five weeks!

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG, a price available from BetVictor, BlackType, Coral & Ladbrokes at 4.50pm on Thursday evening, a price still widely available at 8.45am Friday when I started typing my notes up.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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