Stat of the Day, 13th October 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

4.10 Newmarket : Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, rallied and every chance inside final furlong, edged left and ran on, but beaten by half a length)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.40 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG  

…in the 11-runner, Listed Rockingham Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Soft/Good to Soft in places ground worth £28355 to the winner… 

Why?

Apologies this morning for the lateness of adding the write-up. We lost power here just after 9pm Friday night and it has only came back on 13 hrs later. As a result the following is a bit more note-form / brief than usual, but rest assured, the pick was made via the usual process : all you’re missing is some extra “waffle/padding” from me…

So, we’ve a 2yr old colt with 3 wins and a place from 5 starts on turf (13511) with a 3 from 3 record on Good to Soft/Soft/Heavy. He’s 1 from 1 in Listed company too, also gained on heavy ground (at Ayr LTO 22 days ago), so he shouldn’t be found wanting for stamina today.

His yard (trained by Ralph Beckett) is in great form right now with a 30 day record of 18 winners from 71 (25.4% SR) rising to 9/32 (28.1%) over the past fortnight, whilst the last 7 days’ tally is an excellent 5 from 16 (31.25%).

Ralph’s runners are also 113/690 (16.4% SR) for 232.4pts (+33.7% ROI) over a 6f trip since 2009.

His LTO winners are 77/385 (20%) for 24.7pts (+6.4%) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter since 2013, with those coming off a break of 6 to 60 days winning 65 of 296 (22%) for 33.2pts (+11.2%)

And here at York, Ralph’s runners are 10/63 (15.9% SR) for 70.3pts (+111.5% ROI) over the last four seasons, including…

  • 11-60 days since last run : 7/48 (14.6%) for 67.4pts (+140.4%)
  • non-handicaps : 4/22 (18.2%) for 54.3pts (+247%)
  • at Class 1 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 49.8pts (+311.5%)
  • sub-4/1 runners are 5/12 (41.7%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%)
  • and in Listed races : 2/10 (20%) for 51.48pts (+514.8%)

pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG, a price available from a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 York

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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