Stat of the Day, 15th October 2018
Saturday’s Pick was…
2.40 York : Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, headway in centre chasing leaders over 2f out, kept on into 2nd over 1f out, no chance with winner)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG
…in a 12-runner, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner…
Why?
Well, we’ve got a 4 yr old filly who has been running consistently well over the last 6 months, making the first three in six of her seven starts in that period and won last time out at Lingfield 30 days ago.
That was also a Class 4, 6 furlong A/W handicap where she was ridden by today’s jockey Irineu Goncalves, so conditions shouldn’t be entirely alien to her today.
Generally speaking, Chris Dwyer’s A/W runners who won LTO also on the A/W are worth at least a second glance, since they’re 23 from 85 (27.1% SR) since the start of 2013. Sadly, they don’t quite make a profit from blind backing (not that I’d advocate that anyway) : they’ve actually lost 1.03pts at Betfair SP.
However, this is such a small loss that they remain of serious interest because (a) any blind approach with an SR of 25% or higher is a good starting point and (b) they’d be profitable at early BOG odds like we take, especially as those eventually sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 22/58 (39.3% SR) for 20.3pts profit (+36.3% ROI).
So, the basic premise here is to follow Chris Dwyer’s shorter priced LTO winners.
That approach brought Rose Berry into my thinking and also at the back of my mind I has this vague memory that one of Mr Dwyer’s successful angles was with lower grade handicappers on Polytrack, so I did a bit of data mining and discovered that since the start of 2016, his Class 4 to 7 Polytrack handicappers have won 28 of 137 races (20.4% SR) for profits of 166.4pts at an ROI of 121.4%, which are very decent figures indeed.
But we need to see how those numbers would fit into today’s contest and what I found was that of the 28/137 stat…
- over trips of a mile and shorter : 25/121 (20.7%) for 172.9pts (+142.9%)
- 6-30 days since last run : 27/105 (25.7%) for 196.1pts (+186.8%)
- at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 22/61 (36.1%) for 33.1pts (+54.3%) further proof that the market tends to get the Dwyer horses right.
- in September / October : 8/33 (24.2%) for 62pts (+188%)
- Fav / jt fav / co-fav (all a possibility here today) : 13/23 (56.5%) for 17.26pts (+75%)
- LTO winners : 10/20 (50%) for 15.22pts (+76.1%)
- and those ridden by Irineu Goncalves are 3/5 960%) for 130.75pts (+261.5%)
…all steering us towards… a 1pt win bet on Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG , a price widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday evening ans was still there at 9.00am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
…click here for the betting on the 8.45 Kempton
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!
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