Stat of the Day, 16th October 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

8.45 Kempton : Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon towards rear, headway and switched right over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on, held by winner, beaten by half a length)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.50 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG  

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…in a 13-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner…  

Why?

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has been rejuvenated by a switch of yard (to Stuart Edmonds) and a switch of code (chasing to hurdles) 2 runs ago, winning both times and therefore sending him here on a fairly quick-fire hat-trick bid.

He won a Class 5 over 3m at Uttoxeter 23 days ago and then stepped up in class and trip to win here over course and distance (C4, 3m1f) 11 days later / 12 days ago. So neither track nor trip should be his undoing here and with today’s jockey, Ciaran Gethings having been on board for those last two runs/wins, he’ll know how he’s going to be ridden!

The horse is now…

  • 3/11 in September/October (2/3 over hurdles)
  • 3/8 at 8-15 days since last run (2 wins, 1 place from 3 over hurdles)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 6 hee at Huntingdon (1/2 hrds)
  • 2/5 at 3m/3m1f (2/2 hrds)
  • 2/2 for Stuart Edmonds (both over hurdles)
  • 2/2 under Ciaran Gethings (both over hurdles)
  • and 1 from 1 over C&D (from LTO)

Stuart Edmonds only had his first runner on 29th January 2015 (my wife’s 44th birthday for those wanting an irrelevant stat) and although it took him 3 months and 20 races to land his first winner, backing all his runners has proved to be a profitable venture. To date he is 57 from 367 (15.5% SR) for 9.33pts (+2.54% ROI) and if we just focus on his NH runners for relevance today, those are 55/336 (16.4% SR) for 17.72pts (+5.27% ROI), including…

  • at 11-45 days since last run : 41/210 (19.5%) for 57pts (+27.1%)
  • on Good ground : 24/138 (17.4%) for 52.2pts (+37.8%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m3f : 13/92 (14.1%) for 27.3pts (+29.7%)
  • 7 yr olds are 11/56 (19.6%) for 55.1pts (+98.3%)
  • LTO winners are 18/51 (35.3%) for 31pts (+60.9%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 6/22 (27.3%) for 5.93pts (+26.9%)

More generally (and essentially less trainer-centric), in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, horses who won over C&D LTO are 149/653 (22.8% SR) for 100.1pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, which on its own is a good angel, but possibly throws up too many bets for some of you, so to reduce the number of transactions, we could consider…

  • males at 128/536 (23.9%) for 109.9pts (+20.5%)
  • within 25 of that LTO C&D run/win : 94/382 (24.6%) for 80.3pts (+21%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 82/338 (24.3%) for 80.3pts (+23.8%)
  • on Good ground, its 67/265 (25.3%) for 87.9pts (+33.2%)
  • in October/November : 21/86 (24.4%) for 29.1pts (+33.8%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 3/15 (20%) for 3.06pts (+20.4%)

If you wanted a composite angle for about a quarter of the original dataset, a logical approach could be males running at the same class as an LTO win in the past 25 days, yielding 44 winners from 165 (26.7% SR) and 62.6pts profit at an ROI of 37.9%.

And finally, it’s worth (IMO anyway!) noting that in UK Class 4 handicap hurdles over 2m6f to 3m2f, males who won a hcp hrd LTO are 96/436 (22% SR) for 46.7pts (+10.7% ROI) with 7 yr olds winning 21 of 75 (28%) for 34.1pts (+45.4%)

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by 10Bet, Bet365, Betfair, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening and which was still widely available at 9.00am today.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 Huntingdon

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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