Monday’s Pick was…
8.45 Kempton : Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon towards rear, headway and switched right over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on, held by winner, beaten by half a length)
Tuesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG
…in a 13-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner…
Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has been rejuvenated by a switch of yard (to Stuart Edmonds) and a switch of code (chasing to hurdles) 2 runs ago, winning both times and therefore sending him here on a fairly quick-fire hat-trick bid.
He won a Class 5 over 3m at Uttoxeter 23 days ago and then stepped up in class and trip to win here over course and distance (C4, 3m1f) 11 days later / 12 days ago. So neither track nor trip should be his undoing here and with today’s jockey, Ciaran Gethings having been on board for those last two runs/wins, he’ll know how he’s going to be ridden!
The horse is now…
- 3/11 in September/October (2/3 over hurdles)
- 3/8 at 8-15 days since last run (2 wins, 1 place from 3 over hurdles)
- 2 wins, 1 place from 6 hee at Huntingdon (1/2 hrds)
- 2/5 at 3m/3m1f (2/2 hrds)
- 2/2 for Stuart Edmonds (both over hurdles)
- 2/2 under Ciaran Gethings (both over hurdles)
- and 1 from 1 over C&D (from LTO)
Stuart Edmonds only had his first runner on 29th January 2015 (my wife’s 44th birthday for those wanting an irrelevant stat) and although it took him 3 months and 20 races to land his first winner, backing all his runners has proved to be a profitable venture. To date he is 57 from 367 (15.5% SR) for 9.33pts (+2.54% ROI) and if we just focus on his NH runners for relevance today, those are 55/336 (16.4% SR) for 17.72pts (+5.27% ROI), including…
- at 11-45 days since last run : 41/210 (19.5%) for 57pts (+27.1%)
- on Good ground : 24/138 (17.4%) for 52.2pts (+37.8%)
- over trips of 2m7f to 3m3f : 13/92 (14.1%) for 27.3pts (+29.7%)
- 7 yr olds are 11/56 (19.6%) for 55.1pts (+98.3%)
- LTO winners are 18/51 (35.3%) for 31pts (+60.9%)
- and here at Huntingdon : 6/22 (27.3%) for 5.93pts (+26.9%)
More generally (and essentially less trainer-centric), in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, horses who won over C&D LTO are 149/653 (22.8% SR) for 100.1pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, which on its own is a good angel, but possibly throws up too many bets for some of you, so to reduce the number of transactions, we could consider…
- males at 128/536 (23.9%) for 109.9pts (+20.5%)
- within 25 of that LTO C&D run/win : 94/382 (24.6%) for 80.3pts (+21%)
- at the same class as LTO : 82/338 (24.3%) for 80.3pts (+23.8%)
- on Good ground, its 67/265 (25.3%) for 87.9pts (+33.2%)
- in October/November : 21/86 (24.4%) for 29.1pts (+33.8%)
- and here at Huntingdon : 3/15 (20%) for 3.06pts (+20.4%)
If you wanted a composite angle for about a quarter of the original dataset, a logical approach could be males running at the same class as an LTO win in the past 25 days, yielding 44 winners from 165 (26.7% SR) and 62.6pts profit at an ROI of 37.9%.
And finally, it’s worth (IMO anyway!) noting that in UK Class 4 handicap hurdles over 2m6f to 3m2f, males who won a hcp hrd LTO are 96/436 (22% SR) for 46.7pts (+10.7% ROI) with 7 yr olds winning 21 of 75 (28%) for 34.1pts (+45.4%)
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by 10Bet, Bet365, Betfair, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening and which was still widely available at 9.00am today. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!