Stat of the Day, 17th October 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

4.50 Huntingdon : Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd going well after 3 out, soon poised to challenge, led next, clear when went right and not fluent last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG  

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…in a 14-runner, Class 5 Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4464 to the winner…  

Why?

A shorter priced pick than usual (but 2/1 BOG or better should still be worth taking) admittedly, but the statistical evidence is quite compelling about this 4 yr old filly who was a winner at Nottingham seven days ago staying on well under today’s jockey Kieran O’Neill who was riding her for the first time that day.

Her overall record of 2 wins, 3 places from 12 is neither good nor bad, I’d say, but of those 12 outings, she is…

  • 2+2/8 since moving to Ian Williams
  • 2+2/6 at Class 5
  • 2+1/6 going left handed
  • and 1/1 after a break of 7 days or less

Trainer Ian Williams has his string in great form right now with 16 winners from 74 (21.6% SR) for 37.3pts (+50.4% ROI) profit over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today…

  • in handicaps : 15/61 (24.6%) for 47pts (+77%)
  • on the Flat : 10/44 (22.7%) for 29.4pts (+66.8%)
  • over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 3/15 920%) for 30.35pts (+202.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.7pts (+440.8%)
  • ridden by Kieran O’Neill : 2/9 (22.2%) for 5.46pts (+60.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft : 2/8 925%) for 24.23pts (+302.9%)

Ian’s horses have tended to go well with Kieran in the saddle this year, winning 5 of 15 (33.3% SR) for 6.92pts (+46.1%), all on the Flat and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+68.6%) in Flat handicaps, including…

  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) on 4/5 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.05pts (+115%) on females
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.65pts (+432.5%) over 8.5 furlongs or shorter
  • 1/1 (100%) for 6.59pts (+659%) at Class 5
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.06pts (+206%) here at Bath

I stated earlier that Pure Shores won last time out a week ago and it’s also worth noting that over the last five (inc. this one) Flat seasons, Ian’s LTO winners are 31/117 (26.5% SR) for 43pts (+36.8% ROI) profit with the following angles at play today…

  • in hcps : 28/108 (25.9%) for 30.5pts (+28.2%)
  • 1-30 days since last run : 28/86 (32.6%) for 62.4pts (+72.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 28/73 (38.4%) for 45.7pts (+62.6%)
  • at a mile or shorter : 12/40 (30%) for 45.5pts (+113.7%)
  • 1-10 dslr : 13/24 (54.2%) for 32.1pts (+133.6%)
  • and at C5 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 15.8pts (+87.7%)

And seeing that Pure Shores ran just seven days ago, should we be concerned about a quick turnaround? The last six (inc this one) seasons figures say not. They show that Ian’s Flat handicappers are 26/92 (28.3% SR) for 50.4pts (+54.8% ROI) within a week of their last outing and with today’s race in mind, those 92 are…

  • 24/81 (29.6%) for 56.8pts (+70.1%) after running on the Flat LTO
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 57pts (+73.1%) as 4-8 yr olds
  • 23/52 (44.2%) for 39.3pts (+75.6%) sent off shorter than 7/1
  • 12/24 (50%) for 56.1pts (+233.6%) in September/October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.8pts (+118%) as LTO winners
  • 6/10 (60%) for 25.46pts (+254.6%) in October
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.39pts (+46.5%) with Kieran in the saddle.

And considering that it looks like Pure Shores will go off as favourite, it’s interested to note that Kieran O’Neill has ridden 17 favourites this year so far, winning 11 times (64.7% SR) generating level stakes profits of 16.24pts (+95.5% ROI) with five of the six losers making the frame! Of the 17 rides this year…

  • hcps = 8/11 (72.7%) for 13.71pts (+124.6%)
  • Flat = 7/9 (77.8%) for 9.38pts (+104.2%)
  • and in Flat hcps? Just 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 7.99pts (+133.1%) with the only blot on the results page being a runner-up!

which all points to… a 1pt win bet on Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG, a price offered by several firms from 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. Bet365 were the first to show and actually offered 3/1 BOG for the best part of 90 minutes! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.35 Bath

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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