Stat of the Day, 18th October 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

5.35 Bath : Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in last, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, drew clear final furlong, won readily by two lengths)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG  

…in a 12-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner…  

Why?

A very much in-form 5 yr old mare who’ll feel right at home here today if nothing else. Her last three races have all been here at Brighton, all over 6f, all on good to firm ground at increasingly better quality (C6, C5 and then C4 LTO), resulting in 3 wins!

Conditions are slightly different in that she’s dropping back slightly in trip and racing on slightly slower ground and although there’s no science/hard facts involved here, I think from a stamina point of view, the two could cancel each other out. What I do know is that she’s dropping back in class today, which has to be a positive.

Lewis Edmunds rode her for the very first time last time out (31 days ago) and he retains the ride today, so there’s another positive there and stats-wise, I’m going to keep it relatively short but hopefully sweet, as I focus on…

…trainer Chris Dwyer and specifically his Flat handicappers (logically) who are 30 from 190 (15.8% SR) for 55pts (+28.9% ROI) over the last three (inc. this one) seasons. Those are strong numbers from blindly betting all runners, but I know you wouldn’t want to do that, so here are some ways you could reduce your outlay, whilst maintaining/improving the SR and/or ROI…

  • those who last raced 3 to 8 weeks ago are 16/84 (19.1%) for 64.5pts (+76.8%) you could, I suppose, stop here!
  • females are 15/82 (18.3%) for 48.8pts (+59.5%)
  • from August to October inclusive : 16/79 (20.3%) for 77.9pts (+98.6%)
  • this season alone : 13/67 (19.4%) for 44.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those dropping down a class are 9/37 (24.3%) for 62.5pts (+169%)
  • those ridden by Lewis Edmunds : 7/32 (21.9%) for 42.7pts (+133.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/26 (19.2%) for 6.97pts (+26.8%)
  • in October only : 4/17 (23.5%) for 29.1pts (+171.3%)
  • and here at Brighton : 4/12 (33.3%) for 3.5pts (+29.2%)

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.40 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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