Stat of the Day, 19th October 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

4.40 Brighton : Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, never able to challenge)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG  

…in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Heavy ground worth £4787 to the winner…  

Why?

Two runs on soft/heavy so far for this 2 yr old gelding have resulted in him making the frame on both occasions, so he shouldn’t be unduly worried by the conditions here today. The step up from 6f to 7f has looked like one he needed to make, whilst crucially those two placed finished I just mentioned were both at Class 2 and this is a Class 5 contest!

The drop in class, the extra furlong and his aptitude with cut in the ground suggested to me that he might well have been overpriced, although the market hasn’t yet agreed with me, perhaps he’s the right price after all?

The booking of David Nolan for the ride is a positive to me, because he’s had a good season here in the North West , winning 5 of 17 races at Haydock (29.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 23.5pts (+138.3% ROI), all on male runners and including…

  • 4/16 (25%) for 22.34pts (+139.6%) in handicaps
  • no run on heavy, but 2/7 (28.6%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%) on soft
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.1pts (+369.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 for 1.17pts on a 2 yr old.

David also has a decent record on Richard Fahey horses, a record that improves dramatically based on today’s race conditions, which I’ll now attempt to highlight. We’ll start with the Fahey/Nolan record since 2012 which stands at 70 from 559 (12.5% SR) for 125.8pts (+22.5% ROI) : a more than acceptable strike rate and an excellent return from blind backing gives us a good starting point to be more specific, as these 559 runners include…

  • over trips of 5 to 10 furlongs : 64/468 (13.7%) for 176.4pts (+37.7%)
  • at odds of 4/1 to 10/1 : 35/231 (15.2%) for 62.3pts (+27%)
  • 2yr olds are 21/191 (11%) for 150.8pts (+79%)
  • at Class 5 : 25/190 (13.2%) for 86.5pts (+45.5%)
  • and over the last 12 months : 13/55 (23.6%) for 35.1pts (+63.8%)

And using distance / odds / age / class / dates to define the selections then leads me back to one of my stored micro systems that I’m happy to share with you today, namely…

…Fahey + Nolan + 2 to 4 yr olds + Class 4 to 6 + 5f to 1m2f + 4/1 to 10/1 + 2015 to 2018 = 21/92 (22.8% SR) for 81.8pts (+89% ROI), which in terms of today’s contest gives us…

  • males at 18/68 (26.5%) for 75pts (+110.3%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 16/59 (27.1%) for 80.65pts (+136.7%)
  • in handicaps : 12/46 (26.1%) for 53.9pts (+117.2%)
  • at 4/1 to 6/1 : 15/42 (35.7%) for 57.2pts (+136.2%) today’s only variable parameter
  • over 7 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 42.6pts (+146.8%)
  • in October : 3/11 (27.3%) for 18.3pts (+166.4%)
  • and in Nursery races : 2/10 (20%) for 9.81pts (+98.1%)

pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.15 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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