Stat of the Day, 20th October 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

5.15 Haydock : Lightning Attack @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG  

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…in the 14-runner, Class 1, Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £358691 to the winner… 

Why?

Much has already been written elsewhere about this horse & race by far more knowledgeable people than me, so I’ll keep this fairly brief, as not to repeat too much information that you’ve already been given.

This 6 yr old gelding is in good nick (as always, it would seem!) having finished 141 in his three runs this season and with those wins coming on Good to Firm and also on Heavy, I’m not sure there’s any ground he won’t go on!

He won a Group 1 last time out, 6 weeks ago, when partnered by today’s jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time and Oisin himself is in good form as I’ll touch upon shortly.

The Tin Man has won 9 times (plus 2 places) from 19 starts to date and this includes 5 wins from 7 at 4/1 and shorter, 4 wins from 5 as a favourite, 3 wins (and 2 places) from 10 Group 1 efforts and 3 wins from 7 here at Ascot.

Now back to our jockey, Oisin Murphy who has enjoyed a pretty constant strike rate of around 20% over the last few months, actually winning 80 of 398 (20.1% SR) for 27.8pts (+7% ROI) over the last 90 days, including…

  • 4/10 (40%) for 16pts (+160%) at Group 1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 17.04pts (+213%) for trainer James Fanshawe.

And more generally, in Class 1 Flat races over the last 6 seasons, previous C1 winners with a career strike rate of 25% or higher are 37/174 (21.3% SR) for 167.6pts (+96.3% ROI) when running at the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades some 31-75 days after a top 3 finish LTO.

Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson also both fit this bill in the previous race, but with regards to our contest, those 174 runners are…

  • males : 27/119 (22.7%) for 162.7pts (+136.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 24/108 (22.2%) for 162.5pts (+150.5%)
  • prizes of £100k or more : 20/87 (23%) for 164.1pts (+188.6%)
  • at Ascot : 13/63 (20.6%) for 20.2pts (+32.1%)
  • 12-17 runners in race : 12/45 (26.7%) for 177pts (+393.3%)
  • over 5-7 furlongs : 11/45 (24.4%) for 164.6pts (+365.7%)
  • and those with a 25-50% strike rate at the track : 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%)

Of the above 7 criteria, Stradivarius hits numbers 1,3,4 and 7, whilst Thomas Hobson hits 1,2,3,4 & 7, but our pick today ticks all those boxes…

so our advice is… a 1pt win bet on The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG , as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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