Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

2.00 Ascot : The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up towards rear of mid-division, some headway under pressure over 1f out, never on terms) – I also highlighted the stats regarding Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson in the 1.25 race, they finished 1st and 2nd at Evens and 14/1 respectively with the forecast paying 15/1.

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Soft (Gd to Soft in places and sunshine is forecast) ground worth £5531 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a 3yr old filly running consistently well this season with 2 wins and 3 places (32112) from five starts in Flat handicaps so far, including finishing 311 over this 10f trip and she has one win and one runner-up finish on good to soft ground.

Her trainer Ralph Beckett has his string in fine order right now, winning 12 of 55 (21.8% SR) for 5.88pts (+10.7% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today…

• 7/28 (25%) for 8.3pts (+29.6%) in handicaps
• 7/24 (29.2%) for 17.2pts (+71.8%) from his 3 yr olds
• 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.03pts (+37%) at Class 4
• 6/15 (40%) for 16.93pts (+112.8%) over trips of 10 to 12.5 furlongs

In addition to the above short-term success, Ralph has done very well here at Windsor for a long time with 28 handicap winners from 144 (19.4%) generating 40pts (+27.8% ROI) profit over the last 10 years and with today’s race in mind, those 144 runners include…

• 3 yr olds : 20/105 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
• at trips of 8.5f and beyond : 21/102 (20.6%) for 28.48pts (+27.9%)
• since 2012 : 21/96 (21.9%) for 17.7pts (+18.4%)
• females are 16/71 (22.5%) for 40.5pts (+57%)
• at Class 4 : 12/63 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
• on Good to Soft/Soft ground : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+90.9%)
• in October : 4/20 (20%) for 10.56pts (+52.8%)
• and those ridden by today’s jockey, Oisin Murphy, are 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.53pts (+75.5%)

And with regards to our jockey today…Oisin is 39 from 212 (18.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+27.2% ROI) on the Beckett horses over the last 5 years, from which he is…

• 15/87 (17.2%) for 27.4pts (+31.5%) on 3 yr olds
• 21/84 (25%) for 76.7pts (+91.4%) in handicaps
• and 11/45 (24.4%) for 76.6pts (+54.8%) on 3 yr old handicappers…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet & Unibet at 5.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.40 Windsor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!