Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

3.40 Windsor : Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG (=2.4/1 after a 20p R4) WON at 2/1 (Made all, clear over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly, unchallenged winner by 2.25 lengths) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

6.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Pike Corner Cross @ 11/4 BOG  

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, I was tempted to put last Wednesday’s winner, Pure Shores (5.45 Newcastle) up again, but I’m siding with a 6 yr old gelding who appears to have a good chance of snapping a long losing streak.

He was far from disgraced when finishing as a runner-up in a similar contest over course and distance off today’s mark a week ago, but that did take his current run to 12 losses since back to back A/W wins in Class 5 handicaps over 1m/1m0.5f in late 2016, although the time frame is deceptive/misleading as he was off the track for 16 of the last 22 months (Dec ’16 to April ’18).

He’s now some 22lbs lower rate than his last win and looked like he was returning to form last week, form that has seen him win 4 of 20 A/W handicaps before now, including of some relevance today…

  • 4 wins, 3 places from 17 at 1m/1m0.5f
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 14 for trainer Ed de Giles
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 14 here at Kempton
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 13 in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 12 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins, 1 place under jockey Callum Shepherd

…and from the above, he has 2 wins and a place from 8 starts for Ed de Giles over this course and distance in fields of 12-15 runners with the 25% win strike rate yielding 7.62 pts profit at an ROI of 95.3%.

Ed also often sends his A/W handicappers out after a short rest and since the start of 2015, those rested for just 6-25 days are 28/137 (20.4% SR) for 53.5pts (+39.1% ROI), including…

  • at Classes 5 to 7 : 22/105 (21%) for 60.4pts (+57.5%)
  • over trips shorter than 10f : 22/104 (21.2%) for 47.1pts (+45.3%)
  • at Kempton : 10/55 (18.2%) for 10.7pts (+19.5%)
  • at class 5-7 over 5-11f at Kempton : 8/34 (23.5%) for 21.2pts (+62.3%)
  • 2nd/3rd LTO : 8/23 (34.8%) for 23.03pts (+100.1%)
  • same C&D as LTO : 5/149 (26.3%) for 42.06pts (+221.44%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 5/16 (31.25%) for 52.5pts (+328%)

Of course the elephant in the room is the current losing streak endured by this horse, but since the start of 2014, Ed de Giles’ handicappers on a losing run of 6 to 12 races now running off a lower mark than their last win are 9 from 66 (13.6% SR) for 31.1pts at an ROI of some 47.1%…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Pike Corner Cross @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.10 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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