Stat of the Day, 24th October 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

6.10 Kempton : Pike Corner Cross @ 11/4 BOG WON at Evens (Tracked leaders, headway over 1f out, led narrowly inside final furlong, driven out, kept on, always just doing enough) 

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

8.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG  

…in a 14-runner, Class 7, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £2911 to the winner… 


Possibly not the best race on offer today, but a decent opportunity of another win for both SotD and this 6yr old gelding who was a winner here on this track LTO 11 days ago. That was over a mile in another big-field (16 ran!) Class 7 handicap and having raced prominently throughout, he put the race to bed quite early and then stayed on to win pretty comfortably by 3 lengths or so.

Safrani (who runs in the 8.15 Newcastle tonight) was just over 3 lengths back in fourth that day and he has since raced twice in Class 6 handicaps, winning once and making the frame in the other, which is another positive, as is the third place our pick achieved when attempting this course and distance three starts ago at a higher grade than today.

The step up in trip shouldn’t pose too much of an issue should he be ridden the same way and with higher draws doing well here and the main race pace coming from wider out, he should get a really good target to aim at from the off.

Stat-wise, we’ve not got a massive sample size to use today, but trainer Steve Gollings’ horses are 6 from 20 (30% SR) for 9.66pts (+48.3% ROI) here at Chelmsford over the last three years, all males and all in handicaps including of note today…

  • his only runner at the track that day : 5/16 (31.25%) for 7.15pts (+44.7%)
  • his only runner of the day : 4/14 (28.6%) for 4.06pts (+29%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 6/13 (46.2%) for 16.66pts (+128.2%)
  • at Class 6/7 : 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.57pts (+104.8%)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%)
  • October-January trimester : 3/8 (37.5%) for 14.12pts (+176.5%)
  • up in trip by 0.5f to 2f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.08pts (+129.7%)
  • in fields of 11 or more runners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.98pts (+114%)

Like I said, they’re not the biggest sample sizes I’ve ever used, but I think they give an indication towards what has worked for the trainer here at Chelmsford and a final positive I’ll add to the selection is that jockey Adam Kirby is 11 from 48 (22.9% SR) for 9.86pts (+20.6% ROI) riding this 1m2f course and distance over the last 3 years and he does also ride Guardiola over this C&D in the opener…

…but my pick is… a 1pt win bet on Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.30 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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