Stat of the Day, 25th October 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

8.30 Chelmsford : Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led early, tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG  

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner… 

Why?

I’m going to keep this relatively simple today with the focus falling mainly on trainer and jockey…

Trainer Dr Richard Newland’s hurdlers racing over trips shorter than 2½ miles are 107/454 (23.6% SR) for 80.2pts (+17.7% ROI) with those running in conditional jockey races winning 12 of 34 (35.3%) for 25.3pts (+74.4%).

Here at Southwell this year, Richard’s hurdlers have finished 31111 with the 80% strike rate generating 1.93pts profit at an ROI of 38.5%.

Since the start of September this year, his hurdlers have won 7 of 18 (38.9% SR) for 4.24pts (+23.6% ROI)

And as it is a conditional jockey’s race, we should look at our rider today, who is Charlie Hammond. Charlie has 7 wins from 22 (31.8% SR) for 8.66pts (+39.4% ROI) profit when riding in a conditional jockeys’ hurdle contest on a horse trained by Dr Newland since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today…

  • at Class 4/5 : 7/17 (41.2%) for 13.66pts (+80.4%)
  • over trips shorter than 2½ miles : 6/13 (46.2%) for 15.51pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 6/11 (54.5%) for 7.45pts (+67.7%)

…AND…at Class 4/5 over trips shorter than 2½ miles at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 8.31pts (+103.8% ROI) with the three losers finishing 223…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms  at 6.30pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 were best priced at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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