Stat of the Day, 27th October 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

1.20 Doncaster : Lola’s Theme @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn early on race day, citing the going) 

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.10 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG  

…in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £37140 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark 2lbs higher than today and although he hasn’t raced in the last 189 days…(a) neither have most of his rivals and (b) when winning this last year, he was coming off a break of 192 days, so we know he can go well fresh.

He has 4 wins and 2 places from 17 efforts over fences and these include of relevance today…

• 4 wins, 2 places from 13 in handicaps
• 2 wins, 2 places from 8 on Good ground
• 2 wins from 8 at 2m/2m0.5f
• 2 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Cheltenham
• 2 wins, 1 place from 7 with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
• 1 from 2 at Class 2 (but has won at Gr 3!)
• and 1 from 1 over course and distance (last year’s race)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ handicap chasers are going well right now winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 4.59pts (+20.9% ROI) over the last 30 days, but that’s no real surprise to me, because since 2013 during the May to October period, his 5 to 10 yr old male handicap chasers have won 56 of 243 (23.1% SR) for 166.9pts (+68.7% ROI) when rested for at least 16 days.

Of these 243 runners and of note today…

• those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 40/163 (24.5%) for 135.7pts (+83.3%)
• on Good ground : 31/160 (19.4%) for 51.5pts (+32.2%)
• at odds of 5/2 to 5/1 : 36/112 (32.1%) for 63pts (+56.2%)
• in October : 27/93 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
• those returning from a break of 5 to 8 months are 12/53 (22.6%) for 23.3pts (+43.9%)
• at Class 2 : 6/40 (15%) for 5.93pts (+14.8%)
• 9 yr olds are 11/38 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
• those competing for a prize worth £25k to £40k are 3/16 (18.75%) for 14.46pts (+90.4%)
• previous course and distance winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 25.88pts (+172.5%)
• and here at HQ : 3/10 (30%) for 15.32pts (+153.2%)

…AND…if you wanted just a handful of bets each year with a high strike rate and high yield, then Sam Twiston-Davies on those priced at 5/2 to 5/1 on Good ground or softer in September/October is 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 37.17pts (+92.9% ROI) with those coming off a break of 5 to 8 months winning 4 of 12 933.3%) for 9.64pts (+72%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.10 Cheltenham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!