Stat of the Day, 29th October 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

3.10 Cheltenham : Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Raced freely, led, clear before 3rd until 5th, not fluent 3 out, headed 2 out, one pace and held in 3rd from last) 

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lady Alavesa @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 13-runner, Class 5 Claiming Stakes  for 3-4yo over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a winner last time out 13 days ago in a similar Class 5 contest here over course and distance, also on good to soft ground and also under today’s jockey Josephine Gordon, so conditions are familiar enough for her.

Although her record on the Flat (2 wins, 4 places from 11) is acceptable if not stellar, it does include the following of note today…

  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins from 4 at 7/7.5 furlongs
  • a win and a runner-up finish from 2 runs here at Leicester
  • 1 from 2 under Josephine Gordon
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (from LTO, of course)

In addition to the above, trainer Gay Kelleway has been successful in quickly sending LTO winners back out and since 2011 on the Flat her LTO winners reappearing after less than three weeks’ rest are 7 from 39 (18% SR) for 41.9pts (+107.4% ROI), including…

  • 5 from 19 (26.3%) for 25.7pts (+135.2%) at Class 4/5
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 32.93 (+329.3%) from female runners
  • and 2 from 6 (3.3%) for 12.77pts (+212.8%) on good to soft ground.

Gay also has a decent enough record in claimers too, winning 8 of 38 (21.1% SR) for 27.6pts (72.7% ROI) since 2013, from which…

  • those last seen 11 to 25 days earlier are 7/20 (35%) for 33.21pts (+166.1%)
  • those racing over 6f to 1m are 5/15 (33.3%) for 39.28pts (+261.8%)
  • whilst those racing over 6f to 1m just 11 to 15 days after their last outing are 3 from 6 (50%) for 31.28pts (+521.3%)…

…suggesting… a 1pt win bet on Lady Alavesa @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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