Stat of the Day, 30th October 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

2.30 Leicester : Lady Alavesa @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Behind, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led at post) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

1.45 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG  

Your first 30 days for just £1

…in a 10-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner on his only previous effort over fences and that was at Ayr back in May. He reappeared 11 days ago for a sharpener over hurdles, but was expectedly found out/outpaced over a much shorter trip, but the run will have done him good after 165-day absence. Back over fences and back up in trip, this should be more to his liking.

His yard is in great form of late with his stablemates winning 10 of 38 (26.3% SR) over the last 30 days, including 3 from 4 over fences, whilst in the last fortnight, they are 5 from 20 (25%) with a 2 from 3 record in chases.

In fact, it’s less than 16 months since Olly Murphy had his first runner, but in that time he has quickly established a reputation as a decent trainer and although they do tend to attract market support, you can actually just about turn a small profit from blindly backing his chasers, as his 16 from 65 (24.6% SR) record has generated 1.16pts profit at Betfair SP at a modest ROI of 1.78%.

All 65 were males and whilst the returns are small, they’re an excellent starting point and I’d never advocate blind backing anyway! Yet, of the Olly Murphy chasers so far…

  • handicappers are 14/58 (24.1%) for 2.44pts (+4.2%)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 15/51 (29.4%) for 10.22pts (+20%) you could actually stop here and do nicely!
  • after a break of 11-45 days : 12/47 (25.5%) for 8.71pts (+18.5%)
  • Class 4/5 handicappers : 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.49pts (+23.3%) another possible stopping point?
  • on Good ground : 9/34 (26.5%) for 9.1pts (+26.8%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 7/2 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.5pts (+38.3%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 7/25 (28%) for 4.41pts (+17.6%)
  • 8 yr olds are 4/14 (28.6%) for 0.32pts (+2.26%)
  • in October : 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.65pts (+66.4%)
  • and after a break of 11-15 days : 2/4 950%) for 1.47pts (+36.7%)

…and a handy composite micro from the above?

Well, it’s probably a micro micro, but Olly Murphy’s Class 4/5 handicap chasers priced at 10/3 and shorter just 11 to 45 days after their last run are 8 from 15 (53.3% SR) for 9.87pts at an ROI of 65.8% with Richard Johnson riding 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 9.64pts (+120.6%)…

…and Dicky himself is in good touch right now winning 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) in the last fortnight, including 7 from 14 (50%) over fences, whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 13 of 27 (48.2%) with a 5 from 7 record in chases.

And although the Murphy/Johnson/hcp chase angle hasn’t seen much action in the last couple of months, it’s still worth noting that it’s good for 7 winners from 22 (31.8% SR) for 7.41pts (+33.7% ROI) and interestingly 5 of those 22 chasers ran in a hurdle race last time out. Two wins and a place from those five and a £100 outlay (5 x £20 straight win bets) on them would have made you £158.60 profit at an obvious ROI of 158.6%…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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