Tuesday’s Pick was…
1.45 Chepstow : Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, jumped right 2nd, led 14th, mistake next, edged left before last, awkward and headed at last, 3rd and no extra towards finish)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG
…in a 5-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £15562 to the winner…
This 3 yr old filly has finished 211 since going handicapping and now seeks a hat-trick after wins at Leicester and then Chelmsford 18 days ago after a break of 19 days, so another Polytrack run after a similar absence today. She’s 2 from 2 under today’s jockey, Nicola Currie and 1 from 1 on the A/W, but her suitability for the artificial tracks isn’t a surprise, as she’s a daughter of Farhh…
…a 2nd year stallion, whose offspring are proving to be worth watching so far, winning 34 of 169 (20.1% SR) for profits of 24.8pts at an ROI of 14.7% and these include of relevance today…
- 3yr olds : 25/104 (24%) for 26.2pts (+25.2%)
- in handicaps : 19/70 (27.1%) for 22.8pts (+32.6%)
- 3yr old handicappers : 169/65 (29.2%) for 27.8pts (+42.8%)
- on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 26.4pts (+60.1%)
- LTO winners are 7/31 (22.6%) for 9.36pts (+30.2%)
- 3yr old A/W runners are 8/25 (32%) for 23.2pts (+92.8%)
- A/W handicappers are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.4pts (+84.4%)
- and 3 yr old A/W handicappers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 17.4pts (+124%)
Trainer Mike Murphy also has a good record of getting LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 20 of 94 (21.3% SR) occasions since 2012, generating profits of 30.3pts at an ROI of 32.2% along the way, including the following…
- in handicaps : 17/83 (20.5%) for 32.2pts (+38.8%)
- at odds of 5/4 to 5/1 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.2pts (+20%)
- after a break of 4-20 days : 15/49 (30.6%) for 35.2pts (+71.8%)
- on the A/W : 14/48 (29.2%) for 23.9pts (+49.8%)
- since 2016 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+91%)
- female runners are 8/32 925%) for 14.7pts (+46%)
- at Kempton : 3/12 (25%) for 0.26pts (+2.2%)
- and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/4 (50%) for 3.05pts (+76.4%)
And seeing as we’ve looked at the horse, her sire and her trainer, we might as well take a quick look at jockey Nicola Currie, a very promising/talented rider IMO, who to date has ridden 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for Mike Murphy so far and a £20 stake on each of the 24 would have made you a handy £199 profit at an ROI of 41.5% and these rides include…
- 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.96pts (+47.6%) in handicaps
- 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.28pts (+25.2%) on the A/W
- and 1/2 (50%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%) here at Kempton…
Please Note : due to a family commitment, Thursday’s selection will not appear until late Wednesday / early Thursday, although I’ll endeavour to have it done by midnight if possible!
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!