Stat of the Day, 31st October 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

1.45 Chepstow : Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, jumped right 2nd, led 14th, mistake next, edged left before last, awkward and headed at last, 3rd and no extra towards finish) 

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

7.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 5-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £15562 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has finished 211 since going handicapping and now seeks a hat-trick after wins at Leicester and then Chelmsford 18 days ago after a break of 19 days, so another Polytrack run after a similar absence today. She’s 2 from 2 under today’s jockey, Nicola Currie and 1 from 1 on the A/W, but her suitability for the artificial tracks isn’t a surprise, as she’s a daughter of Farhh…

…a 2nd year stallion, whose offspring are proving to be worth watching so far, winning 34 of 169 (20.1% SR) for profits of 24.8pts at an ROI of 14.7% and these include of relevance today…

• 3yr olds : 25/104 (24%) for 26.2pts (+25.2%)
• in handicaps : 19/70 (27.1%) for 22.8pts (+32.6%)
• 3yr old handicappers : 169/65 (29.2%) for 27.8pts (+42.8%)
• on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 26.4pts (+60.1%)
• LTO winners are 7/31 (22.6%) for 9.36pts (+30.2%)
• 3yr old A/W runners are 8/25 (32%) for 23.2pts (+92.8%)
• A/W handicappers are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.4pts (+84.4%)
• and 3 yr old A/W handicappers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 17.4pts (+124%)

Trainer Mike Murphy also has a good record of getting LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 20 of 94 (21.3% SR) occasions since 2012, generating profits of 30.3pts at an ROI of 32.2% along the way, including the following…

• in handicaps : 17/83 (20.5%) for 32.2pts (+38.8%)
• at odds of 5/4 to 5/1 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.2pts (+20%)
• after a break of 4-20 days : 15/49 (30.6%) for 35.2pts (+71.8%)
• on the A/W : 14/48 (29.2%) for 23.9pts (+49.8%)
• since 2016 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+91%)
• female runners are 8/32 925%) for 14.7pts (+46%)
• at Kempton : 3/12 (25%) for 0.26pts (+2.2%)
• and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/4 (50%) for 3.05pts (+76.4%)

And seeing as we’ve looked at the horse, her sire and her trainer, we might as well take a quick look at jockey Nicola Currie, a very promising/talented rider IMO, who to date has ridden 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for Mike Murphy so far and a £20 stake on each of the 24 would have made you a handy £199 profit at an ROI of 41.5% and these rides include…

• 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.96pts (+47.6%) in handicaps
• 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.28pts (+25.2%) on the A/W
• and 1/2 (50%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%) here at Kempton…

…which all points us towards… a 1pt win bet on Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms by 5.20pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Kempton

Please Note : due to a family commitment, Thursday’s selection will not appear until late Wednesday / early Thursday, although I’ll endeavour to have it done by midnight if possible!

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!