Stat of the Day, 1st November 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

7.45 Kempton : Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led 1f, prominent, outpaced over 3f out, no impression after) 

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 13-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding won at this track over 1m4f 27 days ago in a race that came exactly 27 days after he narrowly failed by a neck over the same course and distance, so he should be fresh enough today. Clifford Lee was on board for the win that day and he retains the ride with his 3lb claim today.

The horse, although a previous course winner, hasn’t run over this track and trip before, but he does have a win at the distance elsewhere under his belt, so he should stay.

Stat-wise, I’m going to keep it pretty simple for you this morning…

Trainer Kevin Frost’s LTO winners have repeated the feat on 7 of 17 occasions (41.2% SR) already this year and backing eac of them has been worth 14.9pts profit at an ROI of 32.4% and these include…

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 31.8pts (+227.1%)
  • at 6/1 and shorter : 6/8 (75%) for 16.73pts (+209.2%)
  • after a break of just 11-30 days : 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.27pts (+115.9%)
  • and on the A/W (all here at Wolverhampton actually) : 3/4 (75%) for 12.87pts (+321.8%)

And finally a quick note about jockey Clifford Lee, because for a jockey still riding with a claim, he has an exceptional record at this particular venue, winning 10 of 59 (17% SR) here since the start of 2017, recording level stakes profits of 89.3pts (+151.4% ROI) with a particular talent for winning in these low-grade contests, winning 7 of 21 (33.3%) at Class 6 for 52pts (+247.8% ROI) profit…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by pretty much everyone at 12.10pm on Thursday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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