Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

8.15 Wolverhampton : Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (In touch in mid-division, closed on inside 3f out, led last bend, headed 1f out, kept on, no impression on winner) 

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.50 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Troubled Soul @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 6-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 2m6½f (4948 yards) on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old mare, whose 6 length defeat in fourth place 20 days ago wasn’t as bad as the bare result might suggest. She could/would have been closer but for a mistake at the last when tiring over a longer trip than today, so the drop back in trip should help, as should a 1lb easing of her mark. Incidentally the winner of the race was then raised 7lbs, but still won again next time out despite being upped in class too.

Our mare is trained by Fergal O’Brien, whose horses are 4/19 (21% SR) over the last fortnight and he had a nice winner of another small field handicap chase yesterday at 5/1, whilst his record here at Uttoxeter since 2012 is decent with 22 winners from 143 (15.4% SR) generating 27.3pts profit at an ROI of 19.1% and these include…

  • handicappers at 14/92 (15.2%) for 29.1pts (+31.7%)
  • chasers at 9/45 (20%) for 41pts (+91.2%)
  • and handicap chasers at 9/42 (21.4%) for 44pts (+104.9%)

And as such, it makes perfect sense to focus on those 42 handicap chasers today and a further drill down into the data tells us that…

  • 6 to 9 yr olds are 8/30 (26.7%) for 33.83pts (+112.8%)
  • at trips of 2m5f and beyond : 8/28 (28.6%) for 55.34pts (+197.6%)
  • from September to November inclusive : 4/12 (33.3%) for 26.33pts (+219.4%)
  • and at an SP of less than 4/1 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.82pts (+75.8%)///

…whilst 6-9 yr olds racing over 2m5f and beyond in September-November are 4/6 (66.6% SR) for 32.33pts (+538.9%) at Betfair SP with the 4 winners returned at ISP of 7/2, 6/1, 8/1 and 11/1 with both “losers” making the frame after being sent off at 7/4 and 11/2…

…suggesting we place… a 1pt win bet on Troubled Soul @ 3/1 BOG , as offered by pretty much everyone to have shown their hand by 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.50 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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