Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

3.50 Uttoxeter : Troubled Soul @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 10:22am Reason: Vets Cert – Stiff

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Mitchum Swagger @ 9/2 BOG  

…in the 6-runner, Listed Price Bailey Ben Marshall Stakes for 3yo+ over 1on Soft ground worth £20983 to the winner…

Why?

This 6yr old gelding doesn’t admittedly win often enough but under similar conditions to today does tend to at least be on the premises when push comes to shove.

He has made the frame in 6 of 12 (50%) runs over the 1m trip including one win, he has placed in 5 of 8 (62.5%) on soft ground and has one win and one place from two runs in fields of 7 runners or less.

His only previous run on the Rowley track here at HQ saw him beaten by just a head as a runner-up in this very race three years ago, also on soft ground.

He is trained by Ralph Beckett, whose runners are 6 from 24 (25% SR) over the last fortnight, whilst here on the Rowley, his runners have won 16 of 131 (12.2% SR) for 22.1pts (+16.9%) over the last six seasons, including of note/relevance today…

  • males are 10/62 (16.1%) for 25.3pts (+40.7%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 10/59 (16.9%) for 54.5pts (+92.4%)
  • males racing over 8 to 10f are 8/32 (25%)
  • those last seen 16 to 30 days earlier are 5/32 (15.6%) for 19.8pts (+61.8%)
  • those ridden by Harry Bentley are 4/18 (22.2%) for 22.4pts (+124.3%)
  • males racing over 8 to 10f, 11-45 days since their last run are 6/14 (42.9%) for 50.8pts (+363%)
  • and males ridden by Harry Bentley over 1m to 1m2f, 11-45 dslr are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 27.9pts at an ROI of 930% with the “loser” beaten by just a head as a runner-up…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Mitchum Swagger @ 9/2 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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