Stat of the Day, 5th November 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

3.45 Newmarket : Mitchum Swagger @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up in touch, challenged over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on strongly towards finish to win by 5 lengths) 

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.15 Hereford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Stepover @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 4-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Firm ground worth £4809 to the winner… 


With 4 wins and 3 runner-up finishes from her last ten outings, this seven year old mare clearly brings the best form to the table today. Also of note from her career to date, she has 2 wins from 5 over 16.5/17 furlongs, 2 wins and a place from 4 in fields of 1-7 runners and she’s 1 from 1 here at Hereford via a win over course and distance.

Her trainer Alex Hales hasn’t had many runners at this venue, but those that have been sent here have won 3 from 5 (60%) for 11.57pts (+231.3% ROI) since the start of last year with a runner-up thrown in for good measure. And of these 5 Hereford runners…

  • hurdlers are 3 from 4 (75%) for 12.57pts (+314.2%)
  • handicappers are 2 from 4 950%) for 4.73pts (+118.2%)
  • and those racing over today’s trip are 2 from 2 for 10.45pts!

But the real reason I was drawn to this race originally is because my Geegeez query tool flagged it up for me, as Alex Hales is one of my bookmarked trainers in Class 4/5 handicap hurdles. In Class 4 contests, he is 14 from 85 (16.5% SR) for 11.28pts (+13.3% ROI) since the start of 2015 and with today’s contest in mind, here’s how he got his 14 winners…

  • 9 came from 22 (40.9%) runners sent off at 5/1 and shorter generating 16.5pts (+74.8%)
  • 8 from 33 (24.2%) runners in the September-December period for 23.53pts (+71.3%)
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) aged 7 or 8 giving 22.21pts at 116.9%
  • 7 from 36 (19.4%) coming off a break of 26-75 days providing 19.1pts (+53.1%)
  • 6 from the 26 (23.1%) racing over trips of 2m1f or shorter for profits of 27pts (+104%)
  • 4 came from just 9 races (44.4%) of 7 or fewer runners, giving 24.25pts at a massive ROI of 269.4%
  • and there was 1 winner from 2 (50%) here at Hereford for a 2.12pts (+106%) profit

…whilst 7 yr olds priced at 5/1 or shorter in the final third of the year are 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 11.45pts (+229.1% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Stepover @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by pretty much everyone at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Hereford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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