Stat of the Day, 6th November 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

2.15 Hereford : Stepover @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Took keen hold, tracked leader until mistake 4th, shaken up after 3 out, driven after next, one pace and no impression, no extra flat) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

1.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG  

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…in a 12-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old gelding who was beaten by just a length over 8.5f at this very track 5 days ago, he’s quickly turned back out off the same mark but takes a drop in trip to a course and distance where he has won previously in the past off this mark of 55.

He’s by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3-5 yr olds are 17/105 (16.2% SR) for 47.1pts (+44.9% ROI) in Class 6 A/W handicaps over 7-8 furlongs and whilst that’s a nice little micro-system that continues to bear fruit, we’ve bigger fish to fry here, because…

since the start of 2013 in UK A/W handicaps over 6 to 8.5f, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a defeat by 3 lengths or less LTO are 131 from 591 (22.2% SR) for 186.7pts (+31.6% ROI). Obviously I’m not saying you should follow them blindly, as 100 or so bets per year from one angle can be too much for many, but it is one you could use if you’re not a jumps fan this winter.

If, however, like many you prefer to refine the selection further, there’s an absolute myriad of logical, profitable angles (they should always be logical!) you could take. I’m “only” going to scratch the surface and give you 14 possible angles of attack! So, from our original 591 quick returners, in descending order of number of selections…

  • those running off the same mark (OR) as LTO : 118/507 (23.3%) for 176.7pts (+34.9%)
  • males are 104/449 (23.2%) for 158.8pts (+35.4%)
  • those running at the same class as LTO : 89/385 (23.1%) for 164.5pts (+42.7%)
  • Class 6 runners are 71/296 (24%) for 151.7pts (+51.3%)
  • those running on the same track as LTO : 55/237 (23.2%) for 105.4pts (+44.5%)
  • those last seen 5 days ago are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • here at Wolverhampton, it’s 51/191 (26.7%) for 115.3pts (+60.4%)
  • those who ran here at Wolverhampton LTO are 44/188 (23.4%) for 91.5pts (+48.7%)
  • those racing over 7f are also 44/188 (23.4%) but for 58pts (+30.9%)
  • those racing on Tapeta are 37/142 (26.1%) for 77pts (+54.2%)
  • 5 yr olds are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • those dropping in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs are 26/90 (28.9%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • those who are running here at Wolverhampton and also did so LTO are 23/87 (26.4%) for 73.5pts (+84.4%)
  • and in October/November : 20/84 (23.8%) for 89.9pts (+107%)

Now, going back to the original 131/591 (22.2%) for 186.7pts (+31.6%), the above examples show how robust the strategy is, regardless of today’s result. We’ve 14 (and there are many more) logical angles, all with a similar strike rate to the original and this is good for us systemites. The original 22.2% only has extremes of 21% and 28.9% in the examples and this shows the stability of the system.

Of course, there’s far more variance in the ROI (22.3% to 107%), but this merely shows that the market hasn’t yet cottoned on to some of the angles and I’ll wrap up for the day by offering a composite from the above for those who want just a few bets each year at a higher SR/ROI than the original…

…as Class 6 males who also ran at Class 6 LTO 3-5 days earlier off the same mark at the same track = 25/67 (37.3% SR) for 86.8pts (+129.5% ROI) including 10 winners from 28 (35.7%) for 38pts (+135.7%) here at Wolverhampton, but these angles are a little more niche/contrived than the original examples!

…but they all point towards… a 1pt win bet on Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Sky Bet & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Monday evening (a price still kicking around at 9.00am Tuesday), although Bet365 were slightly better at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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