Stat of the Day, 7th November 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

1.45 Wolverhampton : Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Behind, headway over 1f out, ran on into 2nd inside final furlong, never reached winner, beaten by a neck) 

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

6.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Coachella @ 4/1 BOG  

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…in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

Sorry for the delay this morning, had to go for an emergency dental appointment!

Anyway, let’s crack on with a 4 yr old gelding in prime form having finished 221 in his last three runs, all in Class 6 A/W handicaps over a mile (sounds familiar!), culminating in a course and distance win here nine days ago, making him one of just two runners in today’s contest to have achieved that feat. This will be tougher carrying an extra 7lbs, but the booking of Luke Morris is a positive move that should help.

He has just 2 career wins to date, which isn’t great but when wearing blinkers going left handed in Class 6 handicaps over a mile (as he does today) he has 2 wins and a runner-up finish from 5 attempts and the 40% strike rate has yielded 68pts profit at an ROI of 1360%! That ROI is massively skewed by a 40/1 win that paid 70/1 at Betfair SP before commission, but ROI aside that stat does show he should have his favoured conditions today, if nothing else.

And the main underlying stat I’ve used today?

Looks far more complicated in print than it actually is, but…

…2013-18 / Class 5 & 6 / All-Weather / odds of 6-1 and shorter / LTO C&D winners by a head to 3 lengths 2 to 10 days earlier…

Such beasts are 81/217 (37.3% SR) for 61.7pts (+28.5% ROI) and in the interests of brevity (time is getting on!), I won’t go into masses of subsets of data, but it is worth noting that of those 217 qualifiers…

  • those raised (OR) by 6 to 9 lbs are 52/129 (40.3%) for 48.8pts (+37.8%)
  • those racing over a mile are 13/31 (41.9%) for 24pts (+77.5%)

…and those racing over a mile off a mark 6 to 9 lbs higher than LTO are 10 from 20 (50% SR) for 24.5pts (+122.5% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Coachella @ 4/1 BOG , as offered by Betfair and paddy power at 6.30pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there’s plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.20 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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