Stat of the Day, 8th November 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

6.20 Chelmsford : Coachella @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Held up in last trio, headway over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong, not pace to threaten) 

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.20 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG  

…in an 8-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m3f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has finished in the first four home in 8 of his last 9 starts, all under today’s jockey Lorcan Murtagh and including 2 wins. He’ll like the ground today and he stays this far (probably further too, based on what I’ve seen on replay).

Stat-wise, it’s a simple starting point with trainer Donald McCain Jnr’s record here at Sedgefield in recent seasons. Donald’s runners are 41 from 213 (19.25% SR) for a modest 2.83pts (+1.33% ROI) profit since the start of 2015 and whilst those aren’t terribly exciting returns, the strike rate is excellent from blind backing and it’s always good to start from a profitable position.

We, of course, wouldn’t have advocated backing all 213 runners, of course, we’d rather find some logical filters that are applicable today and would also reduce our outlay whilst increasing our returns, such as…

  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 41/197 (20.8%) for 18.83pts (+9.56%)
  • males are 35/186 (18.8%) for 6.61pts (+3.55%)
  • those sent off at 5/4 to 10/1 are 36/166 (21.7%) for 12.22pts (+7.36%)
  • handicappers are 25/142 (17.6%) for 14.04pts (+9.89%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 14/94 (14.9%) for 7.83pts (+8.33%)
  • on Good ground : 13/71 (18.3%) for 7.73pts (+10.89%)
  • and at trips beyond 3 miles : 5/24 (20.8%) for 10.88pts (+45.3%)

Now, with the exception of the stayers, those numbers still don’t do enough to get the pulses racing, although 7 to 11% is far better than a bank offers and we’d have fun doing it! The answer, of course, is to tie the filters together and the simplest angle from above is to back Donald’s male handicap hurdlers here, as they are 12/79 (15.2% SR) for 14.37pts (+18.2% ROI). This means we’ve multiplied our ROI by 14 whilst only placing 37% of the original 213 bets!

We can, of course, drill into those 79 male handicap hurdlers if we wished and if we did, we’d find that…

  • 5-10 yr olds are 12/71 (16.9%) for 22.37pts (+31.5%)
  • Class 2 to 4 runners are 8/57 (14%) for 16.93pts (+29.7%)
  • in 2017/18 : 9/45 (20%) for 23.23pts (+51.62%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 11/60 (18.3%) for 15.74pts (+26.24%)
  • on Good ground : 5/29 (17.2%) for 21.49pts (+74.09%)
  • and over today’s 3m3f course and distance : 2/11 (18.2%) for 7.82pts (+71.05%)

And from the above, 5-10 yo male hcp hurdlers at Class 2-4 in 2017/18 at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 are 5/17 (29.4%) for 20.49pts (+120.53%) including 2/7 (28.6%) for 10.32pts (+147.5%) and 2 from 4 (50%) for 14.82pts (+370.4%) over this 3m3f C&D…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.35pm on Wednesday evening, whilst there was some 3/1 BOG available at Bet365 for those able/quick enough to take advantage. In fact 7/2 was widely available at 9.00am Thursday! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Sedgefield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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