Stat of the Day, 9th November 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

3.20 Sedgefield : Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Held up in touch, headway 4 out, soon ridden, weakened after next, tailed off) 

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.05 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG  

…in a 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £5198 to the winner… 


This 10 yr old gelding was a winner by 3 lengths over 3m2.5f in a similar Class 4 contest under today’s jockey Nick Scholfield when last seen 102 days ago, taking his record in sub-£6,000 Class 4 handicap chases to 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts and whilst he’s been off the track for almost 3.5 months now, I’m not over concerned, as he’s made the frame of four of five runs off a break of 3 to 6 months previously.

He is trained by Jeremy Scott and the trainer’s record in such contests will form the backbone of today’s analysis, as his Class 4 handicap chasers have won 35 of 160 (21.9% SR) for 94.3pts (+58.9% ROI) profits since the start of 2014 and whilst I rarely advocate blindly backing one of my starter angles, you could actually do far worse than just back these, as there’s an average of less than 40 per year.

That said, I/you would probably still want to apply some filters to improve both SR and ROI, so we could try…

  • males at 33/152 (21.7%) for 91.5pts (+60.2%)
  • 6-10 yr olds at 32/125 (25.6%) for 101.6pts (+81.3%)
  • priced at 7/4 to 13/2 at 24/83 (28.9%) for 35.2pts (+42.4%)
  • on Good ground at 19/79 (24.1%) for 34.8pts (+44%)
  • ridden by Nick Scholfield at 16/64 (25%) for 60.2pts (+94%)
  • in 2018, they are 9/37 (24.3%) for 32.8pts (+88.7%)
  • from November to January : 8/36 (22.2%) for 52.9pts (+147%)
  • stayers over 3m2f to 3m4f are 10/28 (35.7%) for 14.5pts (+51.9%)
  • 10 yr olds are 6/25 (24%) for 5.37pts (+21.5%)
  • at Warwick : 2/11 (18.2%) for 8.46pts (+76.9%)
  • and after a break of 3 to 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+132.1%)

Yet, I know there are plenty of you who like a nice composite angle they can follow, so the following simple micro (derived from the above) might work for you…

6-12 yr old males priced at 7/4 to 13/2 on ground with the word Good in the official description are 18 from 47 (38.3% SR) for 44pts profit at an attractive ROI of 93.6%, from which Nick Scholfield is 6/19 (31.6%) for 13.66pts (+71.9%), whilst the 3.25 to 3.5 mile stayers are 7 from 12 (58.3%) for 20.82pts (+173.5% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.05 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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