Stat of the Day, 10th November 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

3.05 Warwick : Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, lost place 7th, tailed off after 13th, soon pulled up) 

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Your first 30 days for just £1

Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG  

…in a 13-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner… 


This 8 yr old gelding was a runner-up in another Class 2, 7 furlong handicap off today’s mark 25 days ago, going down by just half a length to Muntadab, who has since run twice : winning again at this class/trip before finishing as a runner-up in a Listed contest at Newmarket last Saturday, beaten only by our SotD selection, Mitchum Swagger.

Our trainer today is Ian Williams, whose runners are 17 from 105 (16.2% SR) for 13.4pts (+12.7% ROI) here at Doncaster since 2009, of which handicappers priced shorter than 10/1 (my preferred odds range for my personal betting) are 14 from 45 (31.1% SR) for 42.75pts (+95% ROI).

It makes sense to focus on these 45 handicappers today and in the context of this race, they are…

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 40.33pts (+100.8%) when competing for less than £13k prize money
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 41.1pts (+171.3%) racing within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 29.45pts (+155%) in 2017/18
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 26.68pts (+222.3%) after a break of 21-25 days

AND from the above…2017/18, 7/1 and shorter, 21-25 dslr for less than £13k = 3/5 (60% SR) for 18.36pts (+367.2% ROI), including 1/1 at Class 2 for 6.28pts profit.

I’m also happy to see the Doyler (James Doyle) in the saddle today, as he’s in great form, winning 14 of 35 (40% SR) over the last 30 days and 9 of 23 (39.1%) in the past fortnight, whilst his record for Ian Williams in handicaps is an excellent 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 9.3pts (+20.2% ROI) over the last three years…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG, a price widely available at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *