Stat of the Day, 13th November 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

3.30 Kempton : Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Shade keen, chased leaders on inside, went 2nd at 9th, pushed along and one pace before 3 out, eased down when no chance with winner) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lillington @ 7/2 BOG  

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…in a 6-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Soft ground worth £9748 to the winner…

Why?

Three of the six on show here today have been off the track for some time (164 to 218 days) with the other three having raced as recently as 17 to 46 days ago and of these three, our 6 yr old gelding is definitely the form horse, having won two of his last three and wasn’t disgraced in finishing fourth at Cheltenham LTO in a Class 2 contest 17 days ago.

He’s now eased a pound by the assessor and takes a drop in class to attempt to improve on a chasing record of 2 wins and 2 places from 7 attempts (all whilst wearing a tongue tie), including…

  • 2 wins and a place from 5 under today’s jockey Tom Scudamore
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in handicap chases
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins from 4 going left handed
  • 2 wins from 2 over trips of 2m-2m1f
  • and whilst he hasn’t won on soft ground yet, he has made the frame in all three efforts to date, including 2 runs over fences.

His trainer Colin Tizzard is in good form too with 6 winners from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.02pts (+104.4% ROI) over the last week and whilst he doesn’t run many here at “leafy”, those that have been sent here are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 1.58pts (+17.6%) in NH handicaps since the start of 2016, from which Class 3 runners are 3/6 (50%) for 4.58pts (+76.4%), whilst Class 3 handicap chasers are 2 from 4 950%) for 2.76pts (+69%).

As I intimated above, Tom Scudamore is in the saddle again today and he’s 5 from 19 (26.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+123.2% ROI) in handicap chases at this venue since 2010, including 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 2.93pts (+41.9%) over this 2m C&D and 2 from 6 (50%) for 8.35pts (+139.2%) at Class 3.

But today’s main stats refer back to the horse and his recent form. The last two entries on his form line read 14, making him one of my 1-2/3/4 horses, whereby…

…Since 2013 in Class 3 to 5, UK NH handicap chases over 2m to 3m1f on ground deemed good or softer, horses who won two starts ago (ie the 1) and then finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 2/3/4 bit) last time out less than three weeks ago are 110/475 (23.2% SR) for 230.2pts (+48.5% ROI)…

These are essentially horses in good form, turned back out fairly quickly in the hope of getting at least one good run out of them before a rest. Of course, 475 chasers from one angle is too many bets to back blindly for most people, so let’s break them down with today’s contest in mind, shall we? If we did, we’d find that…

  • males are 102/442 (23.1%) for 20.7pts (+49.9%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 84/380 (22.1%) for 212.6pts (+55.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 36/164 (22%) for 138.7pts (+84.6%)
  • those finishing 4th LTO are 30/122 (24.6%) for 130.1pts (+106.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 24/87 (27.6%) for 92.5pts (+106.3%)
  • in November : 18/64 (28.1%) for 81.3pts (+127.1%)
  • and over a 2m trip : 12/47 (25.5%) for 19.2pts (+40.9%)

And from the above, since 2014, Class 3 males who finished 4th, 11 to 20 days earlier are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 70.7pts (+220.9% ROI), including 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 70.93pts (+709.3%) in November and 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 57.37pts (+573.7%) from 6 yr olds…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Lillington @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet & Coral at 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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