Stat of the Day, 14th November 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

2.50 Lingfield : Lillington @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Prominent, hampered 5th, led after 4 out, challenged after next, stayed on well to win by 1.5 lengths) 

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG  

…in an 11-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £6108 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old mare had a respectable record (32128) over hurdles in 2017 before taking a 345-day break. She then returned to action 32 days ago at Hexham, when she was a 5 lengths winner, staying on well, on her chasing debut, also at Class 4 over 2m4½f on Soft ground and ridden (as she always has been) by today’s jockey Henry Brooke.

This suggests that she should feel at home under today’s conditions, as she aims to give the sire Ask another winner. To date, his offspring are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 22.7pts (+80.9% ROI) over fences, mainly in Ireland but with some success here too. With respect to today’s race, those progeny of Ask are…

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 20.14pts (+118.5%) as 6 yr olds
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 16.63pts (+127.9%) as females
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.46pts (+306.6%) in UK Class 4 contests
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 18.42pts (+307%) on Soft ground
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 27.31pts (+546.2%) over trips of 2m4.5f to 2m6f

This particular “daughter” is trained by Martin Todhunter, who enjoys coming here up the M6 from his South Cumbria base, as his runners are 10 from 54 (18.5% SR) for 23.64pts (+43.8% ROI) in NH handicaps over the last 5 years, with those sent off at odds of Evens to 12/1 (my preferred starting point for trainer based micros) wining 10 of 41 (24.4%) for 36.64pts at an ROI of some 89.4% and these include…

  • those who raced in the last 45 days : 9/31 (29%) for 29.32pts (+94.6%)
  • chasers are 6/25 (24%) for 21.1pts (+84.4%)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f/2m5.5f are 4/14 (28.6%) for 31.42pts (+224.4%)
  • in November : 3/10 (30%) for 1.65pts (+16.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.7%)

…and from the above…handicap chasers at Evens to 12/1 within 45 days of their last run are 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+60% ROI), from which LTO winners are 3/4 975%) for 14.79pts (+369.7%) and those running in November are 2/4 (50%) for 5pts (+125%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & Coral at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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